Elections 2025: Democratic Forces Distance Themselves from the Domestic Political Calendar

Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya’s office is focusing its attention on international activities: isolating the Lukashenko regime and advocating for the interests of the diaspora. As a result, democratic forces are distancing themselves from the domestic Belarusian political calendar, which carries the risk of narrowing their support base. Opposition politicians are attempting to seize the initiative from Tsikhanouskaya’s office in shaping the agenda of the democratic movement. In particular, Valery Tsapkala is proposing a strategy to mobilize society during the 2025 election campaign.

There is growing public demand for a strategy of conduct during the 2025 election campaign. Other opposition figures are trying to take the lead from the united democratic forces in this area. For example, former presidential candidate in 2020 Valery Tsapkala suggests adopting the Russian experience. His plan involves supporting any candidate who is an alternative to Lukashenka.

Despite the start of discussions, Tsikhanouskaya’s office has yet to present a plan for the 2025 elections. Meanwhile, Lukashenka has already launched his pre-election campaign, with a security crackdown on reform supporters and the preparation of state apparatus, election commissions, and observers.

At the same time, Tsikhanouskaya’s office has achieved successes on the international stage in terms of isolating and prosecuting the Lukashenka regime. For instance, Lithuania has submitted documents to the International Criminal Court in The Hague regarding the dictator’s crimes. Some EU diplomatic staff in Belarus have been recalled to Brussels.

Additionally, democratic forces continue to advocate for the interests of their supporters in communication with the Polish government, yielding positive results:

• The Polish Foreign Minister raised the issue of Belarusian political prisoners during talks with the U.S. State Department.
• Democratic representatives discussed easing the legalization procedures for Belarusians in a meeting with Poland’s Minister of the Interior.

Despite having a well-established infrastructure for the new wave of political emigration, democratic forces face difficulties in communicating with potential supporters and engaging them in socio-political activity. This is influenced by objective factors: the depoliticization of Belarusian society and repression. On the other hand, it could be related to the democratic forces’ lack of media resources for communicating with the diaspora. For example, the democratic forces managed to attract only about seven thousand supporters in the elections to the Coordination Council, most of whom were in exile. However, the number of Belarusian emigrants in Poland alone is estimated at over 300,000 people.

Thus, it is unlikely that democratic forces will conduct a large-scale mobilization campaign during the elections amid a harsh authoritarian crackdown.