Elections 2025: Are Democratic Forces Out of the Game?

The democratic forces continue to distance themselves from the domestic political agenda. Various political organizations have proposed several action plans for the elections, including boycott/abstention, “smart voting,” and “voting against all.” However, Lukashenka’s opponents do not expect a large-scale mobilization of supporters given the harsh repressive environment.

As a result of distancing themselves from the internal Belarusian agenda, the support base for democratic forces has narrowed, along with shifts in target audiences. In December 2024, a presentation of the “package of legislative proposals for a New Belarus” is scheduled for European Parliament members. At the same time, the active phase of the presidential campaign will be underway in Belarus. Despite the short electoral period and the holiday season, political engagement in society is expected to rise, as well as interest in alternative visions for the country’s development. However, democratic forces have yet to announce any intentions to communicate their vision of a “New Belarus” to potential supporters within the country.

The strategy of Lukashenka’s opponents for the presidential campaign is largely limited to a protest-oriented audience, which has significantly diminished due to ongoing repression and emigration. Additionally, the opposition lacks a unified strategy, often issuing contradictory appeals.

For example, Tsikhanouskaya’s coalition has limited its recommendations, suggesting that on the main voting day, supporters should vote against all candidates.

During periods of socio-political apathy, boycott sentiments traditionally intensify among activists. Currently, some of Lukashenka’s opponents plan to ignore the elections due to fears of regime persecution. Opposition figure Zianon Pazniak has also called for an election boycott.

Notably, Pazniak’s consistent stance has shaped his supporters’ views, leading them to boycott not only regime-led elections but also the nomination of candidates to the Coordination Council (CC) in 2024. Pazniak himself has been in exile for nearly thirty years, limiting his audience to the emigrant community.

In contrast, opposition representatives within the CC have suggested using Russia’s “smart voting” approach. Blogger Knyrovich called for supporting any counter-candidate to Lukashenka.

Meanwhile, democratic forces continue efforts to maintain Lukashenka’s regime in international isolation. Latvia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has supported Lithuania’s appeal to the International Criminal Court to investigate crimes against humanity in Belarus. Democratic forces continue to demonstrate diplomatic success with European capitals in pursuing Lukashenka’s regime, with Poland having previously supported the appeal.

Thus, communication between democratic forces and change supporters continues to weaken. This creates potential opportunities for the emergence of new political organizations representing the interests of those advocating for change.