Diplomatic Achievements of Democratic Forces and Communication Failure with Belarusians

When comparing the level and frequency of foreign policy contacts between Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya and Alexander Lukashenka, the democratic leader clearly has the upper hand. However, the democratic forces are failing to convey their international achievements to the Belarusian audience effectively. At the same time, tensions within the Coordination Council are increasing, with the interests of the opposition minority being ignored.

Regime propagandists are working actively to neutralize the international achievements of the democratic forces. However, the democratic forces are currently unable to shape favorable public opinion inside the country for themselves and their positions. This is due to the reduced influence of political organizations on the information agenda, including through the decreasing audience of independent media.

The democratic forces are promoting the agenda of Belarusian civil society abroad. The main points include isolating the Lukashenka regime and supporting civil society. Ahead of the NATO summit, The Washington Post published a joint article by democratic Belarus leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya and former Speaker of the US House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi, followed by a joint appearance on the American morning show “Morning Joe” on MSNBC.

The democratic forces are building on their diplomatic successes. The OSCE is relaunching the Vienna Mechanism concerning Belarus, initiated by the group “Friends of Democratic Belarus.” Tsikhanouskaya participated in the NATO summit, attending high-level political meetings.

Despite significant diplomatic successes by Tsikhanouskaya’s team, the influence of the democratic forces on Western policy towards Belarus is narrowing. Restrictions on ordinary Belarusians are expanding, and Belarusians are increasingly being equated with Russians. Tsikhanouskaya has called on Poland to ease the conditions for transporting goods for Belarusians.

The Latushka coalition continues to strengthen its position in the Coordination Council, resulting in a loss of influence for opposition lists in decision-making. Representative of the “Latushka Team” list and the “For Freedom” movement, Melnikova, was elected as the Speaker of the Coordination Council, with Hlinnyk from the “European Choice” list becoming Vice-Speaker. These two lists are close to the Cabinet and Tsikhanouskaya’s Office. The rules of the game are increasingly being revised and determined without considering the opinion of the opposition minority. This accelerates decision-making but leads to increased tension and mutual criticism, which can result in new scandals.

Thus, if the interests of the opposition minority are ignored, the Council could face another crisis, with opposition members potentially leaving its ranks.