Democratic forces maintain attention and support from European capitals. However, the overall agenda regarding engagement with the regime is becoming diluted. The voice of critics against the sanctions approach and isolation of Lukashenko is growing louder.
The European Union is offering another package of support to the Belarusian people. This was announced at a high-level conference in the European Parliament organized by Belarusian democratic forces.
At the same time, proponents of de-escalating relations with Lukashenko’s regime are attempting to seize the initiative in communication with the West from the office of Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya. Maria Kalesnikava’s sister proposes easing sanctions on the Lukashenka regime in exchange for the release of political prisoners.
However, the idea of trading political prisoners is unpopular among activists of the democratic movement. Hardline supporters continue to maintain a decisive influence on the formulation of the democratic forces’ strategy towards Lukashenka’s regime.
Since 2020, a group of political organizations within the democratic forces has emerged, criticizing the position of Tsikhanouskaya’s office. The team of Viktar Babaryka and the coalition of former Speaker of the Coordination Council, Pavel Latushka, have periodically sought to revise the democratic forces’ overall agenda. This includes softening the rhetoric towards Lukashenko and abandoning the regime’s isolation. However, the proponents of de-escalation have no obvious negotiating partner within the regime. On the contrary, the security forces continue to expand their influence in state governance. The courts imprison and repress more opponents than those who are freed through pardons. After a series of purges, the Belarusian Ministry of Foreign Affairs now appears as a solid part of the regime with no initiatives towards easing repression.
The democratic forces are trying to provoke public resonance regarding the agreement Lukashenka signed with the Kremlin. According to security forces from BELPOL, this agreement creates formal grounds for sending Belarusians to war. In Belarusian society, there is an anti-war and anti-nuclear consensus. Belarusians do not welcome the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons on the country’s territory, nor do they support the participation of their army in the war.
So far, the regime’s actions—and the democratic forces’ attempts to counteract the involvement of Belarusians—have not triggered a protest movement. However, the actions of the democratic forces cause reputational damage and undermine Lukashenka’s image as a guarantor of stability, peace, and national independence. The dictator is forced to justify himself to his audience.
In civil society, the question of Belarus’ involvement in peace negotiations on Ukraine has become more pressing. The head of the Euro-Atlantic Cooperation Agency, Kavaleuski, is promoting a compromise option for the democratic forces and Lukashenka’s regime. This would involve the participation of Belarusian experts as consultants. While this might be acceptable to the democratic forces, it is unlikely that Lukashenka’s regime would agree to such a solution.
Thus, within the democratic forces, there is growing fatigue from the prolonged standoff with the regime. However, in the current climate of increased repression, it is unlikely that proponents of de-escalation will gain decisive influence over the formation of the overall agenda for the democratic forces.
