Democratic Forces: Walking the Razor’s Edge of Repression

The democratic forces plan to use the pre-election politicization of society to revive political communication with the people and expand their audience. However, it is unlikely that a protest mobilization of Belarusians can be expected under the ongoing repressions.

Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya announces a mobilization strategy for her supporters, though the democratic forces have limited influence on the domestic agenda in Belarus. Nevertheless, the activation of opponents worries Lukashenka and triggers a nervous reaction from his security forces. The democratic forces aim to broaden their base of sympathizers during the pre-election politicization, even though the regime is trying to shorten this period as much as possible. Lukashenka is already conducting a full-fledged electoral campaign, although elections have not yet been officially announced.

It should be noted that distancing from the 2024 electoral campaign has narrowed the influence of the democratic forces on the internal agenda in Belarus.

However, Tsikhanouskaya’s coalition aims to maintain influence and a role in shaping Western policy toward Belarus. This includes supporting sanctions rhetoric to isolate Lukashenka, although voices within civil society periodically advocate for de-escalation of relations with the regime.

As a result, tensions and mutual criticism among political organizations are increasing, which impacts the mobilization initiatives of civil society.

The democratic forces plan to hold a solidarity relay titled “A Voice Across Borders.” The event is organized by BYSOL, ByHelp, Dissidentby, the People’s Embassies, and “A Country for Life.” However, this initiative is likely to be smaller in scale than previous efforts due to reputational losses. For example, the organizers were unable to unite their efforts with the main organizers of the 2023 solidarity marathon “We Care” — former political prisoner and member of the United Transitional Cabinet, Volha Harbunova, and the “May 21” team.

At the same time, civil society retains a high potential for mutual support and solidarity, even in relocation. For instance, within 24 hours, Belarusians raised over EUR 6,000 for the treatment of musician Alyaksandr Pamidorau.

The democratic forces are also drawing attention to the “New Belarus Passport.” However, interest among change supporters in this ambitious initiative is waning. This is due to several scandals surrounding the project and the constant postponement of document issuance. As a result, skepticism has arisen among democratic supporters regarding the successful implementation of the project, even though there was initially a high demand for this passport within the political emigration. More than 62,000 people had expressed their willingness to obtain it.

Thus, the democratic forces face the challenge of maintaining communication with their supporters while avoiding harsh reactions from Lukashenka’s security forces.