Democratic Forces: Navigating the “Elections” Without Losses

Political organizations are striving to seize the narrow window of opportunity during Lukashenka’s presidential campaign. Strategic dialogue with the United States strengthens the position of democratic forces and influences Washington’s policy-making toward Belarus. Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya’s coalition contributes to maintaining consensus among Lithuanian politicians regarding the strategy for relations with Belarus.

Despite ongoing repression, the politicization of Belarusian society is increasing. For example, supporters of change demand a unified message from democratic forces regarding the electoral campaign. To meet this demand, representatives of democratic forces issued an appeal to Belarusians concerning the “non-elections of 2025.” In the face of repression, political organizations aim to preserve mobilization potential by offering the safest courses of action for their supporters. On the other hand, ignoring active political campaigning leads to a further narrowing of the audience of democratic forces.

Presidential candidate Hanna Kanapatskaya continues to position herself as a proponent of national-democratic values. Her target audience comprises the most protest-oriented segments of the population. These groups’ interests have been represented by democratic forces led by Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya since 2020.

Civil society is concerned about the potential revision of Washington’s approach to relations with the official Minsk. However, the second round of strategic dialogue has reinforced the trend of supporting civil society and democratic forces in the near future. The United States has called for the unconditional release of all political prisoners in Belarus. Meanwhile, the adoption of the Belarus Democracy Act is being delayed, although representatives of democratic forces are intensifying their communication efforts with U.S. politicians.

According to the Lithuanian Seimas Vice-Speaker Juozas Olekas, Lithuania will continue to support a democratic Belarus. Democratic forces are working to engage with Lithuanian politicians at various levels, including through joint events. A recent example is the conference “Belarus-Lithuania: Toward the Future Through Shared Values.” Such dialogues reduce tensions in Lithuanian society toward Belarusians, thus maintaining positive attitudes toward democratic forces.

However, discussions are resurfacing within democratic forces about revising their strategy toward the Lukashenka regime. There is growing support within the democratic movement for softening rhetoric. Some activists have even voiced the idea of dissolving Tsikhanouskaya’s coalition institutions. Media discourse has emerged about lifting certain restrictions in specific areas, such as “sports sanctions,” in exchange for the release of political prisoners.

Cooperation between Ukrainian volunteers and democratic forces is increasing, enhancing the potential of both sides. This includes bringing the interests of Belarusian fighters into the agenda of democratic forces. Initially, volunteers were cautious about Tsikhanouskaya’s leadership in the democratic movement, as well as various coalition structures. The Kalinouski Regiment’s representatives criticized democratic forces and declared their intention to become a political center, though this has not materialized.

Thus, the democratic movement is witnessing closer collaboration between volunteers and political organizations. This strengthens the position of both sides in communication with Western capitals and Ukraine.