Democratic Forces: Local Victories Amid Failure on Political Prisoners

The democratic forces are achieving local diplomatic victories despite the waning attention towards Belarus. Meanwhile, the public perceives the neglect of the Belarusian issue during the exchange of political prisoners between Russia and the West as a failure of the efforts by Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya’s Office. However, the Office continues to lead in shaping the overall agenda of the democratic movement and consolidating political organizations.

The democratic forces are compelled to publicly acknowledge the fiasco in communication with the Western establishment regarding the release of political prisoners. It appears that the intensive contacts of Belarusian democratic leaders do not influence the actions of Western capitals on this sensitive issue for society. Ignoring the Belarusian agenda in the exchange process intensifies criticism of the activities of the democratic forces. Accordingly, the level of support for these politicians among supporters of change is declining. This is also explained by the fact that for a long time, the issue of releasing political prisoners was called a priority in the agenda of Tsikhanouskaya’s broad coalition.

As a result, the voices of critics of Tsikhanouskaya’s Office are getting louder. Former Coordination Council speaker Andrei Yahorau proposes exchanging political prisoners for the regime’s legitimacy. In contrast, the mainstream approaches of Tsikhanouskaya’s coalition involve delegitimizing and isolating the Lukashenko regime. Incidentally, a number of political organizations agreed on this priority, solidifying the adoption of the “Platform 2025.”

Tension among volunteers fighting in Ukraine remains. Some military personnel are integrating into the mainstream democratic movement. One of the founders of the “Kalinouski” movement, Vadim Kabanchuk, took the position of representative for defense and national security in the United Transitional Cabinet. This is likely related to the resignation of Valery Sakhashchyk, who had strained relations with representatives of the Kalinouski regiment.

Meanwhile, the Kalinouski regiment remains embedded in the hierarchy of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and maintains military subordination. In turn, the socio-political movement “Kalinoutsy” is an autonomous organization that keeps its distance from the Kalinouski regiment (and, accordingly, the Armed Forces of Ukraine) and is getting closer to the democratic forces led by Tsikhanouskaya. It is worth noting that relations between Tsikhanouskaya and the leadership of Ukraine remain cool, which is linked to the official position of Kyiv.

There have been several other changes in the Cabinet. However, it is unlikely that these personnel changes will significantly impact the growth of trust in the democratic forces amid the neglect of the Belarusian side during the exchange between Russia and Western countries.

Thus, Tsikhanouskaya’s coalition is still managing to consolidate the majority of democratic political organizations around its agenda.