Democratic Forces: International Isolation of the Regime and Decreased Influence on the Domestic Political Agenda

Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya remains a leader in shaping the unified agenda of civil society in communication with the West. The democratic forces are building international consensus on the non-recognition of Lukashenka’s “elections” and the isolation of the ruling class. However, criticism of the mainstream approach to pressuring the regime is growing within the democratic movement.

Former representative of the United Transitional Cabinet, Valer Kavaleuski, criticized the approaches of Tsikhanouskaya’s team regarding the international isolation of Lukashenka and the intensification of pressure on the regime. The diplomat aligned himself with proponents of de-escalating relations with the ruling class. However, Tsikhanouskaya’s critics have not yet formed a stable coalition to strengthen their influence within the democratic movement.

Softening rhetoric and revising the strategy of pressure are unlikely to gain popularity among the pro-democracy core. This is largely due to the persistently high level of repression in the country and attempts by security forces to intimidate political exiles.

Tsikhanouskaya’s cabinet has taken advantage of increased societal politicization to consolidate supporters. The democratic forces organized a joint forum, “Belarusians Deserve Better,” with the participation of diplomats and media, and mobilized the diaspora for protest actions. Around the world, political exiles held solidarity events against the “non-elections.” This stands in stark contrast to the attempts by proponents of de-escalation or “turning the page” to organize their own events. For example, Ilya Dabratvor, a political exile and confidant of presidential candidate Kanapatskaya, refused to hold a picket in Warsaw due to public pressure.

The democratic forces continue to maintain support for civil society from the EU. Tsikhanouskaya’s cabinet is working to mitigate the negative consequences of Western sanctions against Lukashenka for Belarusians. For instance, Tsikhanouskaya held meetings with EU leaders at the international forum in Davos. Topics of discussion included increasing visa availability, support for political prisoners, and assistance to civil society.

The democratic forces are achieving success in diplomatic contacts with the West. The assessment of Belarus’s presidential campaign by EU countries aligns with the messages promoted by Tsikhanouskaya’s cabinet. The European Commission, along with several Western countries, has declared the elections and voting as failing to meet democratic standards.

The democratic forces have refrained from mobilizing supporters for protest actions. This aligns with the prevailing mood in society, which has reverted to a state of political apathy.

International pressure on Lukashenka’s regime is increasing. Reporters Without Borders have filed a lawsuit against Lukashenka at the International Criminal Court. The UN sent a letter to Belarus with accusations regarding violations during in-absentia trials.

Thus, the democratic forces are likely to face increased criticism and demands to adjust their pressure strategy should repression ease in the country.