Democratic Forces: In Pursuit of The Hague for Lukashenka

The democratic forces are solidifying their successes in communication with the governments of EU countries and in defending the interests of political emigrants. The campaign to hold the Lukashenka regime accountable through the International Court in The Hague strengthens the negotiating positions of the democratic forces in the fight to free political prisoners. However, political organizations continue to lose influence over the internal Belarusian agenda.

In Portugal, a law is expected to be passed that will simplify the process for Belarusians to obtain humanitarian visas and asylum. This is the result of work by the Office of Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya—the leader of the democratic forces last visited Portugal on a working visit in May. Additionally, since November 2023, a support group for Belarus has been active in the Portuguese parliament.

The democratic forces aim to form a coalition of countries to hold Lukashenka accountable through the International Criminal Court in The Hague. In Oslo, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya held talks with the Swedish Minister of Foreign Affairs, including discussions on supporting the case against the Belarusian dictator. Recently, Norway joined the EU sanctions against official Minsk. The issue of international prosecution of Lukashenka will also be raised during the official visit of the leader of democratic Belarus to Berlin.

The campaign by the democratic forces to hold the regime accountable through the ICC is one of the most productive. It significantly strengthens the negotiating position of the democratic forces in the effort to free political prisoners.

The delegation on Belarus in the European Parliament has expressed support for the democratic movement and cooperation with the United Transitional Cabinet and the Coordination Council. As early as 2023, members of the European Parliament called on the International Court in The Hague to consider the possibility of issuing an arrest warrant for Lukashenka.

Within civil society, critics of the sanctions approach are gaining strength. The 2020 presidential candidate and former political prisoner Dzmitryeu has urged European capitals to reconsider their policies towards Belarus. He has proposed returning European ambassadors to Belarus.

In the Coordination Council, supporters of the return of EU ambassadors to Belarus are in the minority. The opposition has little influence on the development of the overall agenda of the democratic forces, which is then presented by Tsikhanouskaya in her communications with Western leaders.

Thus, it is unlikely that Tsikhanouskaya’s coalition will expand its audience with sanctions rhetoric and diplomatic successes. The democratic forces led by Tsikhanouskaya risk facing the growing influence and popularity of politicians promoting the internal Belarusian agenda.