Democratic Forces: From Warsaw to Brussels

Democratic forces aim to increase Brussels’ attention to Belarus during Warsaw’s six-month presidency of the European Union. The scandal surrounding the hacking of the Telegram account of deputy for defense and national security issues, Kabanchuk, is unlikely to affect personnel changes in Tsikhanouskaya’s Cabinet. Supporters of de-escalating relations with the regime continue to increase their influence on the informational agenda.

The democratic forces are strengthening communication with the Polish establishment. Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya held talks with Senate Speaker Małgorzata Kidawa-Błońska and Prime Minister Donald Tusk. Polish President Andrzej Duda attended a Christmas and New Year meeting with Tsikhanouskaya and Belarusian representatives. These relations will allow the democratic forces to maintain European attention on Belarus throughout Warsaw’s EU presidency. The democratic forces are opening a window of opportunity to advance the interests of Belarusian civil society and a unified agenda at the European level.

Communication with the West enables ongoing support for civil society and, for example, contributes to the development of Belarusian businesses in Poland. In turn, these steps help the democratic forces maintain unity and the loyalty of their supporters while waiting for a “window of opportunity” for democratic transition in Belarus.

The democratic forces are successfully expanding their position on delegitimizing Lukashenka in Western capitals. For instance, parliamentarians from the USA, Italy, Spain, Lithuania, Poland, Ukraine, and Estonia, as well as the Lithuanian Parliament and the Estonian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, have already declared the non-recognition of the “elections” in Belarus.

On the other hand, Latvia plans to tighten entry and residency rules for Belarusians. This creates new challenges for the democratic forces in defending the interests of their supporters in Latvia.

Tsikhanouskaya’s Cabinet is suffering reputational damage due to another scandal. The hacking of Telegram account of Vadzim Kabanchuk, the representative for defense and national security, is widely discussed in Belarusian media. This incident negatively affects trust in any civil society initiatives.

The discussion about the release of political prisoners within the democratic forces is intensifying, as are debates on revising the sanctions rhetoric towards Lukashenka regime. The ruling class influences the civil society agenda through a campaign of pardons and by elevating the role of defectors from the democratic forces in contacts with political prisoners. Some democratic forces view these actions as a readiness for de-escalating the political conflict.

Thus, democratic forces can increase the attention of Western capitals to Belarus while advancing a unified agenda to support civil society and isolate Lukashenka regime.