Democratic Forces Distance from the Domestic Belarusian Agenda

Political organizations are deteriorating communications with the domestic Belarusian audience. This results from the narrowing of feedback and depoliticization of the population due to authoritarian reactions. Democratic forces are focusing efforts on the most promising directions for maintaining supporters: communication with foreign partners and defending the interests of Belarusians abroad. Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya is gaining diplomatic successes and replacing Lukashenka’s official diplomacy in the post-Soviet space.

Democratic forces are increasing contact levels with the leadership of Armenia amid tensions between official Minsk and Yerevan. The leader of democratic Belarus, Tsikhanouskaya, met in Vilnius with the Armenian Foreign Minister Mirzoyan. The diplomatic successes of the democratic forces in the post-Soviet space are causing serious concern for Lukashenka’s regime. After Tsikhanouskaya’s meeting with the head of the Armenian Foreign Ministry, Armenia issued a note.

Democratic forces are expanding contacts with leadership in the post-Soviet space and promoting their agenda. Particularly, the focus is on isolating Lukashenka’s regime and maintaining contacts with society. Recall that in 2023, Tsikhanouskaya visited Moldova on an official visit.

After the election campaign, the Coordination Council faced another internal crisis. Tensions increased between different factions, sparking a series of media scandals and conflicts. Political organizations focus on intra-organizational procedures — thereby worsening communication with their audiences.

As a result, the distance of the democratic forces from the domestic Belarusian agenda continues to increase. The rhetoric of political organizations coincides with the expectations of a narrow audience of activists, who are often in exile. This is associated with the depoliticization of Belarusian society due to repression. Pro-democratic politicians face a lack of safe mechanisms to encourage activists within the country and mobilize their audiences for political action.

Thus, democratic forces will continue efforts to prevent the deterioration of public opinion in EU countries and the post-Soviet space regarding Belarusians due to the actions of Lukashenka’s regime.