Democratic forces are encountering dual leadership: Tsikhanouskaya’s leadership vs Latushka’s coalition

The leader of the National Anti-Crisis Management (NAC), Pavel Latushka, is strengthening his positions within the democratic movement. He retains his role in the United Transitional Cabinet (UTC) and remains a member of the Coordination Council (CC), which even necessitated changes to the Council’s statutes. The personnel shortage in political organizations is increasing, and the support base for democratic forces is narrowing.

The resignation of Valery Kavalevsky from his position as deputy leader and foreign affairs representative in the UTC is seen as a failure of the “New Belarus Passport” project. The resignation of this popular democratic politician and experienced diplomat weakens the external political potential of the democratic forces.

The initiative to issue a passport by democratic forces was seen as overly ambitious and was criticized by both individual political organizations and experts. However, it was one of the most popular projects of the democratic forces. It helped maintain attention and increased trust ratings for Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya’s cabinet. However, on the eve of the next “New Belarus” conference under the patronage of the leader of democratic Belarus, the democratic forces have no positive news about the implementation of the passport initiative.

Meanwhile, Pavel Latushka has preemptively distanced himself from the “passport” project. The NAC leader continues to strengthen his positions in democratic institutions: for example, the coalition led by him pushed for changes to the CC’s statutes. According to the previous version, it was not possible to hold a position in Tsikhanouskaya’s Cabinet and a mandate in the CC. However, the leader of the “Latushka team” list, as well as Alina Koushyk from the “European list,” held positions in the UTC. The attempt by Latushka’s team to cancel the action of the previous statutes immediately after the elections caused an organizational crisis in the CC.

Democratic forces continue to promote a dual approach regarding Belarus: supporting the civil society/isolating the Lukashenko regime. Tsikhanouskaya discussed with the European Union’s high representative, Josep Borrell, the accountability of the regime and the issuance of Schengen visas to Belarusians.

However, democratic forces are gradually losing influence on public opinion in Western countries. As a result, restrictions on Belarusians are increasing along with the expansion of Russian sanctions against the Lukashenka regime. The list of countries persecuting Belarusian political emigrants is growing.

Thus, the communication and feedback of democratic forces with the audience within Belarus are deteriorating. Tensions between political organizations are increasing amid decreasing resources.