Adjusting Priorities: Mobility Over Sanctions

The potential of the democratic forces to advocate for civil society interests in Western countries is diminishing. As the war in Ukraine drags on, tensions are rising among volunteers from the Kalinouski Regiment, with some expressing political ambitions and positioning themselves as an autonomous socio-political movement.

Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya’s Office has appealed to several EU countries to ease restrictions on the passage of cars with Belarusian plates across the border. The Deputy Head of the United Transitional Cabinet (UTC), Pavel Latushka, had a phone conversation with Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski.

Unlike the Baltic states, Poland maintains greater mobility options for Belarusians and does not plan to impose restrictions similar to those previously applied to Russians. According to Tsikhanouskaya’s Cabinet, Warsaw does not intend to ban the use of personal cars with Belarusian registration or consider confiscating them.

The “Friends of Democratic Belarus” group at the OSCE issued a statement on the extradition of Belarusian citizens.

Western public opinion on Belarus and Belarusians is increasingly being shaped by the actions of the Lukashenka regime.

Civil society and democratic forces are losing ground in their battle against state propaganda. A suspicious sum was noticed in the reporting of the solidarity marathon with political prisoners, “We Care.” Corrections to the data and the publication of clarifications improved public opinion regarding the event, organized by Volha Garbunova, the UTC’s representative for social issues. However, the propagandists’ attack may have negatively impacted trust in civil society crowdfunding initiatives. This highlighted the shortcomings in the democratic forces’ communication about their achievements and messages to their audiences, including through independent media.

The role of the newly elected Coordination Council (CC) in the configuration of the democratic forces is significantly diminishing compared to the previous composition. This has reinforced concerns about the CC’s increasing dependence on Tsikhanouskaya’s Cabinet. Ahead of the large-scale “New Belarus” conference, UTC representatives have not yet held a public report before the delegates of the newly elected CC. Last year, the previous CC heard reports and sought to influence the personnel policy of Tsikhanouskaya’s Cabinet.

As the war in Ukraine continues, tensions are rising within the Kalinouski Regiment. Some members of this movement have formed the “Kalinoutsy” association as their own socio-political representation.

Thus, within the democratic forces, tensions are increasing, accompanied by the fragmentation of initiatives and intensifying competition for resources.