A Challenge to Tsikhanouskaya’s Leadership from the Opposition in the Coordination Council

The struggle for leadership is intensifying within the democratic movement. A team of opposition members, led by the former speaker of the Coordination Council (CC) Andrey Yahorau, is attempting to seize the initiative from Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya’s office in shaping the civil society agenda. Democratic forces risk missing the start of the next political campaign in Belarus and the potential politicization of society.

Opponents of Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya insist on reviewing her leadership status and propose holding elections for the leader of the democratic forces. This is happening amid an escalating discussion regarding approaches to the release of political prisoners. The opposition is trying to form a coalition of political organizations with a greater focus on the issue of political prisoners.

The challenge to Tsikhanouskaya’s leadership intensified after the interests of part of the electoral lists, which made it into the third convocation of the Coordination Council, were ignored. Thus, the “Prokopiev-Yahorau bloc,” which received the second-largest number of mandates, found itself in the minority. One of its leaders, Andrey Yahorau, was the speaker of the previous CC convocation. The coalition of winners, led by Pavel Latushka, initially revised the previous statute of the organization, which was adopted by the second CC convocation, in their own interests. Then, the speaker and vice-speaker of the CC were elected from representatives of a coalition close to the United Transitional Cabinet led by Latushka and Tsikhanouskaya’s office. The interests of the opposition minority were not taken into account. It seems that the opposition minority has completely lost influence on the democratic platform’s agenda, while the majority is attempting to marginalize the minority. Accordingly, the opposition bloc is trying to regain its influence.

In turn, Tsikhanouskaya’s team is trying to address the consequences of reputational damage. The trigger for accusations was the absence of Belarusian political prisoners in the exchange between the Kremlin and Western countries.

At the same time, democratic forces have mitigated the impact of Lithuania’s increased restrictions on the mobility of Belarusians. Vilnius made concessions and adjusted the entry rules for passenger cars with Belarusian license plates.

Democratic forces are taking steps to promote Belarus-related issues in the media agenda of the international community. In the American political publication The Hill, a joint article by Tsikhanouskaya and the U.S. Ambassador-at-Large for Global Criminal Justice, Beth Van Schaack, was published.

Tensions and mutual accusations within the democratic forces are growing just as Lukashenka regime is actively preparing for the presidential campaign.

However, in the agenda of democratic forces, the discussion on Tsikhanouskaya’s leadership is gaining momentum instead of developing approaches to the presidential campaign. Thus, most likely, the audience of political organizations may narrow even further due to the focus on internal organizational procedures and the neglect of the internal Belarusian agenda.