What Does Trump’s Peace Plan for Ukraine Mean for Belarus?

Trump’s plan for Ukraine envisions an 800-mile demilitarized zone (DMZ) between Russian and Ukrainian forces, patrolled by European and British troops. This could freeze the current front line, delay Ukraine’s NATO membership by 20 years, and potentially reduce American support for Kyiv. For Belarus, this plan is critically significant, as it’s unclear whether the DMZ would affect its territory, potentially posing a threat to the Lukashenko regime if European peacekeepers are stationed there. The Kremlin views this plan negatively, so Russia may continue to use Belarusian territory for new military operations against Ukraine.

President-elect Donald Trump is considering ending the war in Ukraine by establishing an 800-mile buffer demilitarized zone between Russian and Ukrainian forces, patrolled by European and British troops. This plan would freeze the current front line and require Ukraine to delay its NATO ambitions for 20 years. In return, Kyiv would receive military support from the U.S.

Trump’s plan has received mixed reactions. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has warned that appeasing Russia would be “suicidal” for Europe. Meanwhile, some European leaders have called for increased defense spending, fearing that Trump might cut aid to Ukraine and reduce NATO support.

Trump’s allies have previously proposed various peace initiatives, such as freezing the current front line and promising Ukraine’s neutrality to Russia. Another option suggested is reducing aid to Ukraine if it doesn’t enter peace talks.

Zelensky, for his part, rejects the idea of “land for peace” and insists that NATO membership is the only way to secure protection against another Russian invasion. However, Ukraine might be forced to consider negotiations due to the risk of losing American aid.

Russia, which has recently made battlefield gains, has little incentive to seek an immediate peace. Therefore, Putin is likely to demand concessions involving Ukraine’s future government, its military capabilities, and territorial changes. Additionally, Russia may push for fundamental changes in Europe’s security architecture to reflect its interests.

Trump’s plan has already raised many questions in Moscow—specifically, the scope of the DMZ and how security within it would be ensured. For instance, would it apply to Russian-occupied Ukrainian regions, including Crimea?

By definition, a demilitarized zone should be an area without military installations, armed forces, fortifications, or combat training.

It’s evident that Moscow will never agree to a peacekeeping force made up of European troops or the dismantling of its military infrastructure in a DMZ. Thus, Moscow and Kyiv will likely reject Trump’s plan outright, as its other provisions hinge on this initial step.

In essence, Trump’s plan resembles an updated Minsk Agreement. This is why Lukashenko is intensifying his “peacekeeping rhetoric” and stepping up “goodwill efforts,” such as assisting in the exchange of the deceased, prisoner lists, and delivering letters to Ukrainian POWs in Russia. While Minsk might not be positioning itself as a future negotiation venue, it clearly aims to be involved in the peace process.

Lukashenko views participation in future negotiations as critical for himself, especially as it remains unclear whether the buffer DMZ would extend into Belarusian territory. Kyiv has a vested interest in preventing any possible northern offensive, particularly given that Belarus provides a path to Kyiv. However, as long as Russia maintains free military access to Belarusian territory and airspace, this threat remains. Thus, Lukashenko fears the possibility of Belarus’s division. The deployment of European peacekeeping forces in a DMZ that includes Belarus could signal the beginning of the dismantling of Lukashenko’s regime.

Meanwhile, Russia has already voiced its disapproval of a “Minsk-3,” seeing it as merely a temporary freeze that would allow Ukraine to build up strength for future conflict with Russia (which also applies to Russia itself).

Therefore, the Kremlin believes it must not relinquish its advantage and is preparing for a new phase of military escalation with Ukraine. The most likely scenario involves Russia once again using Belarusian territory for an assault on Ukraine, possibly with the involvement of Belarusian forces.