The Ukrainian Raid on Kursk May Accelerate Belarus’s Direct Involvement in the War, But Not Yet

The Lukashenka regime has announced the deployment of military units to the shared border with Russia and Ukraine. This move is intended to help the Kremlin create tension and divert the attention of Ukrainian forces. However, Kyiv does not see any significant threat from these actions and continues its offensive operations in the Kursk region. Meanwhile, Minsk is not yet prepared to fully meet its allied obligations to Russia until a mutual security guarantees agreement is signed with Moscow. Should such an agreement be signed, the risks of Belarus directly participating in a renewed northern invasion of Ukraine alongside Russia will increase significantly.

The sudden, bold, and successful raid by Ukrainian forces in Russia’s Kursk region (with the potential to expand into Belgorod and Bryansk regions) has raised questions about Minsk’s reaction to the situation. Both Belarus’s 2024 military doctrine and the 2021 military doctrine of the Union State interpret these events as an act of aggression by Ukraine against Russia. This interpretation would require a coordinated military response from Minsk and Moscow.

After several days of silence, Lukashenka finally commented on the situation, citing an alleged provocation involving Ukrainian drones violating Belarusian airspace, despite previous de-escalation agreements with Kyiv regarding the border situation. As a result, Belarusian Air Force and air defense forces were put on high alert. Several targets—presumably Ukrainian attack drones—were allegedly intercepted and destroyed near Kastyukovichy, with additional targets reportedly “handed over” to Russian air defense and destroyed near Yaroslavl. According to the Belarusian government, all targets were destroyed both over Belarus and Russia, thanks to the Unified Regional Air Defense System of the two countries.

Later, Belarusian military authorities presented fragments of the supposedly downed drones, but the display was unconvincing and appeared staged. Nevertheless, Lukashenka’s maneuvers seem to be preparing the public for a future casus belli with Ukraine.

At this stage, Ukrainian forces are not interested in drawing the Belarusian army into the conflict or expanding military operations onto Belarusian territory. Such a development would jeopardize one of the primary goals of the Kursk raid—shifting the war onto Russian soil and diverting Russian military attention and resources from other fronts.

Lukashenka acknowledged that Ukrainian forces have advanced 30-35 kilometers into the Kursk region and are entrenching there. He claimed this demonstrates Ukraine’s unwillingness for peace and its intent to continue escalating tensions.

Lukashenka also ordered the strengthening of military groupings in the Homel and Mazyr directions in response to what he termed provocations from Ukraine. Special operations forces, ground forces, and missile forces—including “Polonez” multiple launch rocket systems and “Iskander” missile systems—were given orders to move to designated areas.

In connection with the drone incident, Belarus’s Foreign Ministry declared that the country “will fully exercise its right to self-defense” and respond to any provocations. Official Minsk interprets Ukraine’s actions as an attempt to expand the conflict zone and involve Belarus, which claims to advocate for resolving the crisis and ending the bloodshed. The Foreign Ministry also addressed the peoples of Europe, urging them to “cool down warmongering politicians” and warning that the expansion of the conflict would engulf the entire region, potentially spreading to EU countries. Minsk also intends to initiate consultations with allies and partners, as well as through international channels.

Belarus’s Foreign Ministry summoned Ukraine’s chargé d’affaires, Olga Tymosh, to deliver a note of protest regarding the violation of the border by a group of unmanned aerial vehicles. The Belarusian side demanded comprehensive measures to prevent similar incidents in the future. Minsk reserved the right to take retaliatory steps to protect its territory and hinted at the possibility of expelling Ukrainian diplomats if provocations continue.

The Ukrainian side has not observed any movement of Belarusian military equipment or personnel so far. Kyiv believes that Belarus is once again escalating tensions at the border to support Russia.

Although Belarus’s new military doctrine allows for considering the situation as a military-political crisis and even using preemptive military force to resolve it, Minsk’s response will likely be limited to symbolic “saber-rattling” at the border with Ukraine at Moscow’s request. This is evidenced by footage of military equipment being moved, such as tanks not being equipped with anti-drone “grill” armor or electronic warfare systems—indicating they are not preparing for actual combat. Kyiv also doubts that the deployment of Belarusian army units is linked to offensive tasks rather than distracting Ukrainian command in the Kremlin’s interest.

Nevertheless, it cannot be ruled out that in the future, in response to the Kursk raid, Moscow may attempt to reopen the northern front against Ukraine from Belarusian territory, this time for a joint offensive. It seems that this is why Minsk and Moscow are accelerating preparations to sign a mutual security guarantees agreement, planned for this fall instead of December. Lukashenka regime sees this document as a guarantee that Belarus will not be left alone to face Ukraine and NATO if a new (and joint) invasion fails, similar to the failed Russian offensive in February-March 2022.