The Regime Vows to Go All the Way with Russia in the War Against Ukraine and Opposition to the West

Amid Russia’s preparations for another round of escalation due to the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ actions near Kursk, the Lukashenka regime reaffirms its readiness to fulfill its allied obligations to the Kremlin. Specifically, the redeployment of Russian troops to Belarus and the activation of the joint military group against Ukraine are expected if the conflict escalates.

Lukashenka has once again made it clear that he has no intention of pivoting away from Russia towards the West. On the contrary, the Belarusian leader is doing everything to push Belarus further towards the East.

Proposals to normalize relations with the West by releasing political prisoners, exiting Russia’s sphere of influence, and withdrawing Belarus from the war against Ukraine (especially with NATO troops potentially stationed on Belarusian territory) are 99% unacceptable to Lukashenka. However, it seems that some within the Belarusian elite still advocate for this scenario.

At the same time, the dictator stated that there have been and will be no orders for Belarusian troops to fight beyond the country’s borders. According to him, Belarus will only take up arms if it is directly threatened.

This (dis)information campaign also saw participation from the Kremlin, reminding Minsk of its allied duties. On one hand, Moscow “highly appreciated” Lukashenka’s steps to strengthen the defense of the border with Ukraine, claiming it demonstrates the regime’s good faith in fulfilling its obligations to “prevent attacks from behind against Russia.” On the other hand, they reminded that the updated 2021 Military Doctrine of the Union State mandates joint defense of shared borders, as Putin has repeatedly stated. The document affirms the firm resolve of the participants to ensure the military security of the Union State by all available means.

As a result, a joint Regional Group of Forces (Troops) is currently deployed on Belarusian territory, along with modern Russian defense systems and tactical nuclear weapons.

The Russian Foreign Ministry also reminded that any practical implementation of threats against Minsk would have dire consequences not only for Ukraine but also for the West.

Simultaneously, Russia plans to transfer troops to Belarus, ostensibly to counter potential aggression from Ukraine. The justifications for this move include the escalation caused by the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ incursion into the Kursk region, regular attacks by Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance groups in the Bryansk region, violations of Belarusian airspace by drones, and the presence of a 120,000-strong Ukrainian force on Belarus’s southern border.

As shown by the experience of 2022, the main channel for delivering Russian troops and equipment remains the railway. During previous exercises and preparatory activities, the booking of hundreds of trains allowed Russia to quickly transfer significant forces to Belarus. At that time, the Belarusian railway became the main logistics channel for delivering “death” to Ukraine. For the transfer of Russian troops to Belarus, 11,889 railcars carrying military cargo with a total weight of 229,843,421 kg were used, including 730 cars with personnel.

The current transfer allegedly plans to include the movement of “Iskander” missile systems, “S-400” air defense systems, as well as tank and mechanized units of the Russian Armed Forces.

Minsk and Moscow view the transfer of Russian troops to Belarus not only as a step to strengthen the deterrence system but also as a strategic measure and an important stage in operational preparation for potential escalation.

Given that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are currently not interested in opening a “northern front,” there is no doubt that both Minsk and Moscow will find a pretext, likely in the form of a staged provocation, to deploy the joint military group against Ukraine.