The Lukashenka Regime Concerned About the Incursion of Belarusian Volunteers Amid the Presidential Elections

Belarusian security forces are actively emphasizing the potential incursion into the country by volunteer formations from neighboring countries and NATO troops during the presidential election campaign. Apparently, their goal is propaganda, aimed at cultivating an atmosphere of fear within society. The increased military presence on the border with Ukraine is less about securing the border and more about diverting the attention and resources of the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) from offensive operations in the Kursk region and other areas within Russian territory, rather than Belarus.

The head of the Department of International Military Cooperation of Belarus, Valery Ravenka, announced the systematic buildup of forces and assets near the country’s borders by NATO and Ukraine. He also expressed concerns about possible provocations by Belarusian volunteer military units formed in neighboring states from so-called “fugitive” Belarusians.

Accordingly, the Belarusian Ministry of Defense is preparing for “inadequate behavior” and provocations from these units. It appears the list of measures being implemented includes increasing military presence on the border with Ukraine. Since the second half of December last year, ground force units have been deployed to the Stolin, Lelchytsy, Mazyr, and Homel districts, including:

• 11th Mechanized Brigade (military unit 33933, Slonim): a separate mechanized battalion, 841st artillery group (separate units), reconnaissance battalion (separate units), and an anti-aircraft missile and artillery battalion (separate units). The brigade’s units are stationed in the Stolin District (Brest Region) and Lelchytsy District (Homel Region);
• 147th Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment (military unit 96869, Babruisk): a battery of Osa-AKM missile systems (location unknown);
• 120th Mechanized Brigade (military unit 04147, Minsk): 358th separate mechanized battalion, 310th artillery group (separate units), reconnaissance battalion (separate units), and an anti-aircraft missile and artillery battalion (separate units). The brigade’s units are deployed near the “Ziabrauka” airfield (Homel District) and “Bokov” / “Mazyr” (Mazyr District).

Earlier, the KGB revealed details of the “Peramoga 2.0” plan, allegedly developed by the Belarusian opposition abroad. It envisages an armed invasion of the country with Western support, targeting four initial territories for capture: the tri-border area of Belarus, Poland, and Ukraine, as well as the Kobryn, Pinsk, and Luninets districts in the Brest Region.

According to the Belarusian security services, the operation is expected to involve militants from the “Belarusian Volunteer Corps,” other formations fighting alongside the UAF, and illegal armed groups undergoing training in Poland and Lithuania—with NATO forces allegedly being involved later. Their supposed goal is to capture small settlements to spread chaos within the country, followed by the seizure of regional centers and Minsk.

Currently, the primary objective of the UAF is to maintain their foothold in the Kursk region. Even Russian military experts suggest that in 2025, the UAF may attempt a counteroffensive in the zone of the so-called “special military operation” and launch a renewed incursion into Russian territory, rather than Belarus, to strengthen their negotiating position.

Thus, both the Ministry of Defense and the KGB are leveraging the threat of an incursion by Belarusian volunteer formations and NATO for propaganda purposes, cultivating an atmosphere of fear within society over potential military-political destabilization during the presidential election campaign. At the same time, the concentration of Belarusian Armed Forces near the Ukrainian border can be viewed as a means to threaten and divert the attention and resources of the UAF from operations in the Kursk direction and preparations for a new invasion.