The Krieger Case: Is the Kremlin Turning Belarus into a Hub for “Spy” Exchanges?

The Kremlin has decided to expedite the release of its assassin from a German prison with the help of Lukashenka. Recently, it was revealed that the Belarusian regime has sentenced a German citizen to death. Through this cunning “three-move” plan, Moscow and Minsk are trying to involve Berlin in negotiations to exchange Rico Krieger for Vadim Krasikov. As a bonus, Lukashenka gets the opportunity to negotiate with the German authorities, which the dictator perceives as recognition of his legitimacy by Berlin.

A Belarusian court has sentenced German citizen Rico Krieger to death. Unofficially, he was found guilty of “committing an explosion to influence government decisions, intimidate the population, destabilize public order”.

Russian sources claim that Krieger is linked to the Kalinouski Regiment, specifically to its structural unit, the foreign mechanized battalion “Western.” However, the regiment itself denies the German’s involvement.

According to Russian media, the Russian side captured Krieger in November 2023 and handed him over to Belarus. It is alleged that Rico might have been involved in sabotage at the Russian-Belarusian-Ukrainian border. In particular, he is suspected of blowing up a Belarusian train carrying fuel to Russia from the Mazyr Oil Refinery. The incident occurred on May 1, 2023, in the Bryansk region. Following this case, border control was effectively restored at the Belarus-Russia border, inspections were intensified at the Belarus-European border, and the railway was guarded by security forces.

It is noteworthy that the Krieger case came to light after the sentencing of The Wall Street Journal correspondent Evan Gershkovich in Russia.

Previously, Vladimir Putin hinted at the possibility of exchanging Gershkovich for FSF officer Vadim Krasikov, convicted in Germany for the murder of former Chechen field commander Zelimkhan Khangoshvili.

In this story, the Kremlin uses Belarus, a country where the death penalty is practiced, to raise the stakes. Russia involved Lukashenka to force Germany to quickly hand over Krasikov while keeping Gershkovich for future exchanges with the USA.

A similar exchange recently took place on Moscow’s command. Minsk handed over Nikolai Shvets, accused of blowing up the Russian A-50 AWACS aircraft, and several other Ukrainian citizens to Kyiv. Lukashenka stated that this was possible at Putin’s request and was part of a deal to transfer the Metropolitan of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate, Ionafan, to Russia.

Additionally, the Krieger case may be related to the activation of Russian residency in EU countries and the need to create an “exchange fund” for the release of failed agents from Russia and Belarus.

Finally, this exchange scheme implies contacts between Germany and the Belarusian regime, thus bringing Lukashenka to the forefront. He will sign Krieger’s pardon request, which is a necessary part of such an exchange. It is assumed that German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will have to start a dialogue with Minsk (i.e., with Lukashenka).

In Minsk, such contacts are traditionally seen as recognition of the regime’s legitimacy by the West. The Belarusian Ministry of Foreign Affairs has already confirmed Krieger’s death sentence and emphasized that it is negotiating with Germany about his fate. Minsk even offered Berlin “options for the development of the situation.” Apparently, these include not only an exchange and symbolic recognition of the regime but also demands for reducing sanction pressure on Belarus.

However, it is unlikely that Lukashenka will achieve anything more than the presentation of credentials from Germany’s new ambassador, as was the case with the Swiss ambassador. And this will only happen if Berlin decides to elevate diplomatic relations with Minsk.