The arrival of Russian MiG-31K jets serves as a reminder of Belarus’ subordinate status

There are several possible reasons for the arrival of Russian MiG-31K jets in Belarus: an attempt to protect the aircraft from Ukrainian drone attacks, preparation for a new large-scale strike on Ukraine, or a provocation against Belarus. In any case, Lukashenka’s regime continues to grant the Kremlin unrestricted access to its territory and airspace for attacks on Kyiv, maintaining its status as a co-aggressor.

On October 9, a MiG-31K fighter jet of the Russian Aerospace Forces landed at the Machulishchy airfield near Minsk. The next day, a second MiG-31K landed at the same airfield. Such aircraft had not been recorded in Belarus for the past 1.5 years, with the last appearance on April 6, 2023.

MiG-31K fighters are capable of carrying the Kh-47M2 “Kinzhal” hypersonic aero-ballistic missiles, which can be launched from a range of up to 2,000 kilometers.

On October 10, reports emerged of two MiG-31K jets taking off from Machulishchy airfield. They did not return to the base after takeoff but instead headed south, flying past Baranavichy and then eastwards towards Russia. This suggests that, most likely, the MiG jets left Belarusian territory and returned to Russia.

There are several possible reasons for deploying Kinzhal carriers to Belarus:

1. Protecting the jets from Ukrainian drone attacks: The Kremlin may be trying to hide the MiGs from drone strikes on airfields in Russia. For example, on August 16, Ukrainian Defense Forces managed to hit the Savasleyka military airfield in Russia, destroying a MiG-31K/I jet, two Il-76 aircraft, and damaging around five other planes. Therefore, the Russians may be trying to safeguard aircraft that are constantly under threat at Russian airbases.
2. Increased threat to Kyiv: The redeployment of MiGs to Belarus could heighten the threat to Ukraine, including its capital. Ukraine’s Main Directorate of Intelligence has already warned that the Kremlin is preparing a new large-scale attack on the country, similar to the one on August 26. The MiGs’ movements may be part of preparations for a massive bombardment.
3. Possible provocations: After a Russian “Shahed” drone strike near Mazyr, where a refinery was unintentionally made public, it became clear that Russia might be preparing a provocation against Belarus.

At the same time, there is information that Moscow is preparing a new strike on Ukraine, having armed eight strategic Tu-95MS bombers with Kh-101 missiles.

Thus, the arrival of Russian MiG-31Ks and their subsequent maneuvers in Belarusian airspace could be related to rehearsing missile strikes on targets in Ukraine, followed by relocating the jets to backup airfields deep in Russia.

If Russia uses Belarusian airspace for a new missile strike, a retaliatory strike by the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the airfield where they were based in Belarus cannot be ruled out. The withdrawal of these jets from Belarus after an air missile strike is likely intended to prevent retaliatory strikes on Belarusian territory by Ukraine.

Even if the arrival of the Russian MiGs is not directly connected to an upcoming large-scale missile strike on Ukraine, these maneuvers demonstrate that Lukashenka’s regime continues to provide the Kremlin with unrestricted access to Belarusian territory and airspace for attacks against Ukraine. This means that Minsk retains its status as a co-aggressor, despite the “peaceful” rhetoric from Lukashenka’s regime.