Shahed drone strikes: Probing defenses or sending a message to an ally?

The mystery is finally solved. It turns out that on the night of September 4-5, at least 8 Shahed kamikaze-type drones allegedly flew into Belarus from Ukrainian airspace.

Russian air defense units based in Belarus had to track and shoot down at least one of the drones. As a result, Homiel residents heard explosions and saw a burning drone falling. The Shahed landed on a brick warehouse on 8 Ilyicha Lane, which then caught fire. The Shaheds kept on incurring into Belarusian airspace that night.

It seems likely that the drones were tracked and shot down by a unit of the 1530th anti-aircraft missile regiment of the Russian Armed Forces (military post 31458, armed with S-400 SAMS and Pantsir ADMGS), which is based at the Ziabrauka airfield (Homiel District).

The Belarusian Air Force from Baranavichy flew fighter jets over the Homiel Region all night, launching missiles in an attempt to shoot down the remaining Shaheds. This is the second recorded case of Belarusian fighter jets attacking drones.

After the air battle, the six remaining drones returned to Ukrainian airspace. It’s worth noting that during the air defense work on the Shaheds in Homiel, no air raid sirens were sounded.

On the night of September 6-7, the situation was repeated – at least 7 kamikaze drones entered the airspace of Belarus, and presumably a Russian Supercam reconnaissance UAV hit the Belarusian sky for the first time. The Belarusian Air Force had fighter jets and helicopters working over Belarus throughout the night.

The widespread coverage and numerous photos and videos of the UAV destruction over Homiel prompted the Belarusian authorities to comment on the incident for the first time in a long time. The Defense Ministry of Belarus confirmed that drones were destroyed in the country’s airspace thanks to the quick action of the on-duty air defense forces. An investigation into the matter is currently underway. However, the military department did not say where the UAVs came from or how they got into Belarusian airspace.

Since the beginning of July, we have seen a recurrent stream of Russian Shahed-131/136 strike UAVs heading to Belarus. As early as July 16, a drone was shot down in the Homiel Region, and on August 29, a Belarusian fighter jet was engaged in combat with drones. All of these incidents have gone unreported without official comment. Only the denial attempts of some propaganda sources have been documented. It seems like the officials are hesitant to admit that those were Russian drones intended to attack targets in Ukraine.

The official propaganda team is taking a step back to prepare a feasible explanation.However, the state inspection has apparently determined that the UAVs that entered Belarusian airspace were launches from Ukraine. If this is how things are presented, it could add another potential source of conflict for the Belarusian regime.

It is also possible that the Russian UAVs crossing into Belarus from Ukraine are part of a coordinated effort between Minsk and Moscow. The goal is to practice how the Air Force and Air Defense Forces of Belarus and the Russian Air Force interact in a way that is as close to combat as possible. Alarming the Air Force and launching air defense systems at the start of the Russian Federation’s air attacks on Ukraine is a good example of this. Earlier, Aliaksandr Lukashenka said that the combat tasks are being handled within the Unified Regional Air Defense System of Belarus and Russia.

As is widely understood, Kyiv hasn’t yet been given the go-ahead by its Western partners to use long-range weapons to strike the territory of its adversaries, namely Russia and Belarus. This means that the AFU’s only option for such strikes is Ukrainian-made drones. If this line of thinking is on the mark, it seems that Russian Shaheds are training the Belarusian Air Force and air defense systems in a scenario where Ukraine will use attack drones on targets in Belarus. It could also be another sign that Belarus is getting ready to join the fight against Ukraine directly.