Russia Solidifies Belarus in Its Sphere of Influence and Prepares for Conflict with Ukraine and the West

The security agreements signed by Minsk and the Kremlin not only cement Belarus within Russia’s sphere of influence but also lay the formal groundwork for the direct involvement of the Belarusian military in the conflict with Ukraine.

On December 6, during the Supreme State Council session of the Union State, Lukashenka and Putin signed the Security Concept and the Agreement on Security Guarantees. These documents further embed Belarus into Russia’s sphere of influence and impose obligations on Minsk to participate in military conflicts on Russia’s side.

Although the full texts of the documents have not been published, their key provisions are known.

The Security Concept of the Union State, adopted alongside the agreement, evaluates the complex international situation and outlines joint measures to counter threats and challenges, including what it describes as the West’s deliberate escalation of global tensions. The document’s authors argue that it is the West that is pushing the world toward a global conflict.

The Concept’s implementation will involve coordinated organizational, military, economic, technical, and other measures to ensure the security of the Union State.

The Agreement on Security Guarantees outlines mutual commitments to protect the sovereignty, independence, constitutional order, territorial integrity, and external borders of both countries. It provides for the use of all available forces and means, including Russian tactical nuclear weapons deployed on Belarusian territory for defensive purposes.

When signing these documents, Putin and Lukashenka emphasized the unprecedented level of strategic partnership achieved between Minsk and Moscow through these agreements. The accords are designed to counter external pressure and tensions created by Western nations while ensuring the peaceful development of both states.

The agreement builds on the close defense cooperation between Russia and Belarus, including a unified air defense system and a regional military grouping, as well as a shared approach to international issues, particularly the situation in Ukraine.

The document also permits the establishment of new Russian military bases and the deployment of forces in Belarus. Additionally, in the event of a threat to the sovereignty, territorial integrity, external borders of the Union State, or the constitutional order of Russia or Belarus from third countries or terrorist organizations, the parties are obligated to provide each other with immediate military and technical assistance and deploy all available resources.

The agreement contains provisions similar to those of the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty between Russia and North Korea, including:

• In the event of an imminent threat of armed aggression against one party, bilateral channels for consultations are to be activated immediately. The goal is to coordinate positions and agree on practical measures to address the threat.
• If one party is subjected to an armed attack by one or more states and consequently finds itself at war, the other party is required to provide military and other assistance immediately, using all available means.

Notably, after the North Korea-Russia treaty came into effect, units of the North Korean armed forces were deployed to Russian regions bordering Ukraine to participate in military actions against Ukrainian forces.

Given that hostilities are already taking place in Russia’s Kursk region and on occupied Ukrainian territories that Russia has officially annexed, the newly signed agreement provides all the formal grounds for the direct involvement of the Belarusian military in the war against Ukraine.