Preparation for a New Strike on Ukraine: Minsk and Moscow Approve the Concept for the Strategic Maneuvers “Zapad-2025”

Minsk and Moscow have approved the concept for the “Zapad-2025” strategic maneuvers, which may aim to prepare for a potential new strike on Ukraine. Russia justifies the exercises as a response to NATO’s increased activity and the West’s involvement in the conflict with Kyiv. The “Zapad-2025” maneuvers are viewed as a means to strengthen military positions and deterrence, including the possible use of tactical nuclear weapons if NATO and Ukraine expand active operations onto Belarusian territory.

A meeting of the joint Board of the Defense Ministries of Belarus and Russia was held in Minsk under the chairmanship of Belarusian Defense Minister Lieutenant General Viktor Khrenin. Russian Defense Minister Andrey Belousov attended the event in Minsk.

During the meeting, decisions were made on key issues related to joint defense policy and expanded military cooperation to ensure the security of the Union State:

• Conducting joint operational and combat training activities;
• Approving the concept and preparation process for the “Zapad-2025” joint strategic exercises;
• Establishing approaches to creating a unified defense space and ensuring the military security of the Union State;
• Enhancing the regional grouping of forces (RGV), and exchanging experiences from special military operations;
• Military-technical cooperation, including supplies of weaponry and equipment;
• Advances by the Russian Armed Forces in air defense, the use of precision weapons, electronic warfare systems, and robotic complexes;
• Cooperation in military personnel training, including training for 360 specialists from the Belarusian Armed Forces in various fields in Russia;
• Countering attempts to falsify the history of the Great Patriotic War;
• Approving a Bilateral Cooperation Plan that includes over 160 joint events from 2025–2027;
• Adapting to new geopolitical realities in Russia’s nuclear deterrence policy, including the potential use of nuclear weapons in response to aggression against Belarus;
• Preparing a Treaty on Security Guarantees between Russia and Belarus and a Security Concept for the Union State.

Justifying the need for “Zapad-2025,” the Belarusian side pointed to a challenging period of global confrontation between East and West. In this context, Minsk sees joint military efforts as a foundation of stability not only for both countries but also as an important factor in strategic deterrence for the Collective Security Treaty Organization.

Russia emphasized the overt pressure from the collective West and NATO’s hostile activities near the borders of the Union State. From Moscow’s perspective, holding “Zapad-2025” is essential due to several factors:

1. This year, NATO conducted its largest exercises since the Cold War, practicing scenarios of a full-scale conflict with Russia and its allies;
2. The alliance’s coalition forces have grown, with increased combat training and intelligence activities;
3. The West’s involvement in the Ukrainian conflict has increased, aiming to inflict maximum damage on Russia, which entails global risks and the prospect of direct military confrontation between nuclear powers.

The Kremlin justifies the need to update Russia’s nuclear deterrence policy, adapting it to current realities. Now, this includes the possibility of using nuclear weapons in response to aggression against Belarus as part of the Union State.

Overall, Moscow sees the purpose of the “Zapad-2025” exercises as enabling Belarusian and Russian forces to address modern threats to Russia and adapt to the evolving military-political environment.

Consequently, Moscow plans to conduct large-scale strategic maneuvers in Belarus in 2025. Improving the bilateral legal framework aims to create a legal basis for deploying the RGV in the conflict with Ukraine. In this context, holding “Zapad-2025” will serve as a cover for concentrating Russian troops in Belarus to prepare for a new offensive on Ukraine. Minsk and Moscow anticipate that the presence of tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus and the revised Russian nuclear doctrine will deter Ukraine and the West from moving military operations onto Belarusian territory.