November 22 – November 28, 2021
Security issues

“Pre-war” rhetoric as a tool of Minsk’s pressure on the EU

The situation has not changed
“Pre-war” rhetoric as a tool of Minsk’s pressure on the EU

Having fallen into a dead end of the migration blackmail of the EU, the Belarusian regime continues to try to aggravate the situation, threatening that the migration crisis could spill into a military one.

During the past week, Minsk accused neighbouring states of preparing an armed confrontation with Belarus. Lukashenka accused Poland and Ukraine of preparing aggression against Belarus following instruction from the United States. Interestingly, for the first time, the Belarusian side at the highest level voiced accusations of a possible aggression against Kyiv. Obviously, the pretext was the border operation “Polissia” carried out by the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine to strengthen control over the possible routes of entry of illegal immigrants into this country.

The Belarusian Defence Ministry issued a statement, in which, in particular, it regarded certain activities on the territory of Poland as a preparation for hostilities.

In parallel, Minsk has offered a ‘solution’ to the migration crisis to the West: that the EU should admit some of the migrants currently in Belarus. Obviously, this is the solution, suitable only for Belarus, not the EU.

The increased rhetoric about a threat of an armed confrontation between Belarus and her neighbours is clearly linked with the failure of the EU migration blackmail. However, this is yet not the end. Due to the need to “keep up appearances”, the Belarusian regime is in dire need of getting at least some concessions from the West in the settlement (in one way or another) of the migration crisis.

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Once a week, in coordination with a group of prominent Belarusian analysts, we provide analytical commentaries on the most topical and relevant issues, including the behind-the-scenes processes occurring in Belarus. These commentaries are available in Belarusian, Russian, and English.

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