Minsk and Moscow Prepare for “Zapad-2025” Exercises and Do Not Plan to Invite NATO Observers

The armed forces of Belarus and Russia have begun practical preparations for the joint strategic maneuvers “Zapad-2025.” Although Minsk has already notified OSCE member states about the parameters and scale of the exercise, it does not plan to invite NATO observers. This approach resembles a strategic disinformation campaign conducted during the “Union Resolve-2022” exercises, which preceded Russia’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine from Belarusian territory.

From January 14 to 16, a joint staff training exercise of the Unified Command of the Regional Group of Forces (RGF) is being held in Minsk. The main theme of the training is “Decision-making on the use of the RGF to ensure the military security of the Union State.” At fixed command posts, representatives of the armed forces of Belarus and Russia will work through one of the scenarios for using forces in joint operations. This training is part of the preparations for the joint strategic exercise (JSE) “Zapad-2025,” which will be held in Belarus.

Earlier, Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov stated that the “Zapad-2025” scenario takes into account modern threats to the security of Russia and Belarus posed by NATO, as well as “the situation developing in the special military operation zone.”

Ivan Buvaltsev, head of the Main Directorate for Combat Training of the Russian Armed Forces, emphasized that the combat training activities are planned to be as close to real combat conditions as possible.

Belarusian Defense Minister Viktar Khrenin stated that “Zapad-2025” would be the main event in the preparation of the Belarusian Armed Forces in 2025. Its implementation will demonstrate Belarus’ adherence to all commitments within the framework of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). Khrenin did not rule out that Minsk might send invitations to Western countries via the OSCE to observe the exercises.

Later, Major General Valery Ravenka, head of the Department for International Military Cooperation, clarified Minsk’s position on the conduct of the JSE:

1. In terms of scale, “Zapad-2025” will involve more than 13,000 personnel. According to the Vienna Document on Confidence- and Security-Building Measures, such exercises must be open to observation. Minsk has already informed all participants of the Vienna Document about the timing and size of the exercise.
2. In 2024, Belarus was not invited to observe the “Defender” series of exercises in Europe. According to Minsk and Moscow, these exercises were explicitly unfriendly and aimed against the Union State.
3. Minsk reserves the right to invite delegations from allies, friends, and partners of Belarus and Russia to the JSE. Therefore, the Belarusian Ministry of Defense will invite as observers only representatives of countries loyal to Minsk and those that have previously invited Belarusian representatives to their exercises. This excludes invitations to observers from the United States and other NATO countries.

In 2022, the notification to the OSCE and the presence of international observers at the “Union Resolve-2022” exercises did not prevent Russia from preparing its invasion of Ukraine from Belarusian territory. It is possible that Minsk and Moscow, as in 2022 before the “Union Resolve” exercises, have already launched a strategic disinformation campaign—creating the appearance of transparency and openness while simultaneously preparing for larger-scale military actions. There is little doubt that the Kremlin plans to use “Zapad-2025” as a tool to pressure Ukraine and Western countries. In the event of an escalation scenario, another invasion from Belarusian territory could occur. This scenario does not exclude the involvement of the Belarusian army in the conflict as part of the RGF.