Minsk and Moscow forge security pact ahead of potential new Ukraine invasion from Belarus

In a program interview, Belarusian Security Council Secretary Aliaksandr Valfovich outlined the next steps for Belarus and Russia to deepen military and political integration.

It is argued that the build-up of US and NATO military presence near the borders of the Union State of Belarus and Russia is a contributing factor to rising tensions in Eastern Europe. The deployment of over 30,000 military personnel in the region, with over 20,000 stationed in Poland and the Baltic States, is a significant concern. A US tank battalion is permanently stationed on the Lithuanian border with Belarus. To reinforce border security, Poland has mobilized up to 17,000 military personnel, with 8,000 stationed along its eastern frontier. In addition, Poland is expanding its military inventory with an increased number of tanks, armored vehicles, and artillery.

Furthermore, the process of NATO expansion is ongoing. As of 2024, 32 countries, including Finland and Sweden, are members of NATO, which is seen as part of the plan to provide military coverage across Europe. The Alliance is said to be pursuing the inclusion of Balkan countries and post-Soviet states in the bloc.

In this regard, Minsk and Moscow have been strengthening their collaboration in the security sector. This includes the Regional Force Grouping, which has been operational since 2000, and the Unified Regional Air Defense System, launched in 2009. Joint military exercises and operations are conducted. The Belarusian side is also closely examining the experience of the Russian “special military operation” against Ukraine and is implementing adjustments to its military strategy. The persistent “provocations by Ukraine,” including violations of Belarus’ airspace by Ukrainian UAVs, make it imperative to reinforce the presence of the Belarusian army along the border with Ukraine. However, according to Valfovich, Belarus, is committed to a peaceful resolution of the Ukraine conflict and proposes Minsk as a neutral venue for negotiations.

In the last three years, the Union State has updated several key strategic planning documents, including the Military Doctrine and the Information Security Concept. A new Union State Security Concept is currently being drafted and is scheduled to be signed in 2025.

However, a treaty on security guarantees is expected to be signed by Minsk and Moscow by the end of this year.  As stated by Belarusian Foreign Minister Maksim Ryzhankou, the document will establish the principle of utilizing nuclear weapons and conventional weapons, as well as other defensive measures, for both countries that are part of the Union State. This document will provide the Belarusian side with the necessary security assurances as the Union State prepares for the potential escalation of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.

In the event of an escalation, there is a possibility of a new invasion from Belarusian territory, with the potential involvement of the Belarusian army and the use of tactical nuclear weapons. Valfovich confirmed that Minsk is ready for the possible use of non-strategic nuclear weapons. In a joint exercise with Russia, the NSNW deployment scenario was practiced.

Minsk has confirmed the plan to hold Russian-Belarusian strategic exercises of the West Regional Force Grouping on the territory of Belarus in 2025, although no dates have been specified. Historically, the active phase of such maneuvers took place in September, preceded by the deployment of Russian troops to Belarus in July and August. By some accounts, the arrival of additional Russian troops could be as soon as the end of 2024 or the beginning of 2025. The “West 2025” maneuvers may commence earlier than anticipated and be held under the “Union Determination” maneuver scheme implemented in January-February 2022. This could serve as a pretext for the formation of a strike group to launch a new invasion of Ukraine from Belarusian territory.