Lukashenka’s Regime Contributed to the Creation of the “Oreshnik” and Seeks to Deploy It in Belarus

Lukashenka’s regime has been impressed by Russia’s strike on Ukraine using the intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) “Oreshnik” and is reportedly considering plans to deploy this weapon in Belarus as an additional security guarantee. However, given the nature of this system, such initiatives could turn Belarus into a target for preemptive strikes.

On November 21, Russia launched an “Oreshnik” ICBM against the Ukrainian city of Dnipro. Ukraine’s military intelligence, the GUR, identified the complex as the “Kedr.”

Most Western experts believe the “Oreshnik” is an experimental modification of Russia’s RS-26 “Rubezh” missile and estimate that Russia’s arsenal of such missiles is extremely limited.

Shortly after the Kremlin used this weapon against Ukraine, Lukashenka (allegedly jokingly) proposed deploying the “Oreshnik” in Belarus to strengthen the security of the Union State. The dictator compares its power to that of nuclear weapons but claims it lacks penetrating radiation and environmental contamination.

According to Ukrainian military intelligence, various enterprises of Russia’s military-industrial complex (MIC) from Moscow, Voronezh, and the “Federal Scientific and Production Center ‘Titan-Barricades’” (Volgograd) were involved in the development of this missile system. The latter enterprise is a major recipient of products from the Minsk Wheel Tractor Plant (MZKT). Notably, in the first nine months of 2024 alone, this Belarusian plant shipped 200 railcars of wheeled machinery and components to various Russian MIC enterprises, primarily chassis for various systems.

Specifically, MZKT sent 36 railcars of equipment and components to “Titan-Barricades.” This gives significant grounds to believe that chassis from the Belarusian plant may have been used in the development of the “Oreshnik” complex.

Despite Minsk’s contributions to the creation of the “Oreshnik,” Lukashenka’s statements are unlikely to indicate genuine intentions to deploy this system in Belarus. The dictator seems to be aiming for a media impact and to use the weapon as leverage against the West.

There is no doubt that Moscow has plans to deploy strategic missile systems in Belarus. Lukashenka himself has previously signaled readiness to host not only tactical but also strategic nuclear weapons. The “Oreshnik” system, as a strategic nuclear weapon carrier, fits this narrative.

Deploying and especially using such systems, which are capable of carrying nuclear warheads and fall under the purview of the New START treaty, poses additional risks for Lukashenka’s regime. In this scenario, Belarus would not only attract heightened attention and surveillance from NATO intelligence services but could also become a target for preemptive strikes to neutralize the complex’s use against Ukraine and European countries.

Nevertheless, Minsk seems to believe that hosting such a system on Belarusian territory would serve as an additional security guarantee, deterring the use of military force by Ukraine and NATO against Lukashenka’s regime.