Lukashenka Calls for Peace but Prepares for War

The Belarusian regime senses the Kremlin’s preparations for escalating the conflict with Ukraine and the West and is trying to position itself safely to avoid direct involvement in the war. Despite calls for negotiations, Minsk is practically preparing for negative developments, as it cannot oppose the Kremlin’s will.

Lukashenka was once again forced to comment on the ongoing Ukrainian Armed Forces raid in Kursk in an interview with the “Russia” TV channel, amid the near-total silence of the Kremlin’s leader, Vladimir Putin.

The Belarusian politician criticized Kyiv’s attempt to raise the stakes before negotiations with Russia by taking control of the Kursk region. Lukashenka emphasized that this would have the opposite effect—the cancellation of negotiations.

He once again called for the conflict to be resolved through dialogue, hinting that continued escalation by Kyiv could lead to Ukraine’s destruction by Russia. At the same time, he partially acknowledged the success of the Ukrainian raid in Kursk and the unpreparedness of Belarus and Russia to extend the front by another 1,200 kilometers along the Belarusian-Ukrainian border.

Meanwhile, the regime continues to prepare for hypothetical participation in military actions. According to Lukashenka, brigades and battalion tactical groups (BTGs) totaling 20 units have been designated for operations on the Ukrainian border. Their official purpose is to prevent a breakthrough from the Ukrainian side. Thus, the grouping for operations against Kyiv is being increased almost tenfold.

Until recently, 2-3 BTGs were deployed on a rotational basis on the Belarusian-Ukrainian border. By the start of the Russian invasion, 6 BTGs were stationed on the border—three times less than what is now planned in a crisis situation.

Thus, Minsk continues to prepare the Belarusian Armed Forces for participation in military actions against Ukraine in cooperation with Russia. Additionally, formations are being created in the Internal Troops with the assistance of instructors from the Wagner PMC, as well as in the State Border Committee.

In addition to the Ukrainian direction, preparations are being made for a possible conflict with NATO. Defensive lines have been built on the western borders, where 10 NATO BTGs are stationed, from Brest to Grodno and further along the border with Lithuania. Lukashenka and Putin have been jointly planning the defense of the western direction for several years. Minsk and Moscow have defensive plans that can, if necessary, be transformed into offensive ones. In the event of a conflict, Russian troops will be deployed to Belarus to operate as part of the Regional Group of Forces, which has recently been reinforced with tactical nuclear weapons. Furthermore, a system of fortified areas has been created on the borders with Poland, Lithuania, and Ukraine, designed to halt a NATO advance while Russian troops are transferred to Belarus.

At the same time, Lukashenka sees the danger that the escalation by Ukraine is an attempt to push Russia into asymmetric actions, such as the use of nuclear weapons. Nevertheless, he did not rule out such a possibility if NATO troops were deployed to Ukraine, which could trigger a third world war. If events unfold in this way, Russia will use both tactical and strategic nuclear weapons. To prevent this, Lukashenka once again called for negotiations.

Lukashenka, citing Putin’s position, stated that peace talks to resolve the conflict in Ukraine should resume from the Istanbul agreements, which were developed by the parties back in the spring of 2022. However, the agreement would now need amendments to reflect the new territorial realities—recognition of the occupied Ukrainian territories by Russia.

Thus, Lukashenka took the initiative in commenting on the consequences of the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ raid in Kursk. He highlighted several important aspects that are likely being widely discussed in the Kremlin. These include possible responses by Russia to the bold and successful actions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kursk region, with the potential to expand to Belgorod and Bryansk regions. Lukashenka’s skeptical statements suggest that the possible measures include not only the opening of a “northern front” against Ukraine but also the use of nuclear weapons. Although the Belarusian politician has repeatedly reminded of the need for negotiations, the only reason for this is the possibility of preventing Belarus from directly entering the war.

However, it is known that all proposals for peace talks have already been withdrawn by the Kremlin, meaning the next step is escalation. And Minsk will not be able to influence this decision. Rather, it will take a conciliatory position, as it did at the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.