February 19 – February 25, 2024
Security issues

Lukashenkа calls for mental and strategic preparation for World War III

The situation got worse
Lukashenkа calls for mental and strategic preparation for World War III

Lukashenkа has presented his perspective on the military-political situation around and within Belarus to the country’s security forces, aligning closely with the Kremlin’s stance. According to his assessments, a significant escalation of the conflict between Russia/Belarus and Ukraine/the West seems unavoidable. Lukashenkа attributes territorial redistribution plans in Europe and attacks on Russia and Belarus to the United States and NATO, echoing the Kremlin’s position. He advocates for preemptive military action against them to prevent a global defeat.

On February 20, Alexander Lukashenka conducted a meeting with the leadership of national security bodies, outlining guidelines and assessments of the military-political situation around Belarus. During his address, he urged security forces to abandon any illusions about a diplomatic resolution to the global conflict between Russia and the West, asserting that international law cannot alleviate the tension. Consequently, Lukashenka foresaw the onset of World War III and emphasized the necessity for mental and strategic preparedness.

Dismal forecasts and the volatile military-political situation near Belarus’ borders are compelling Lukashenka to brace for such a scenario. He predicts an increase in the West’s activity, with Washington and its allies continuing to expand NATO by incorporating countries such as Bosnia and Herzegovina, Moldova, Georgia, and Serbia, following the Ukraine scenario.

Lukashenka points out that the West is attempting to involve Belarus in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, even though Minsk has no intention of participating. Allegedly, the West believes that Minsk’s active involvement would undermine the regime and Lukashenka. Furthermore, they purportedly envision territorial changes resulting from the war, with Poland claiming part of modern Belarus. According to Lukashenka, this reflects the West’s strategy of inflicting a global defeat on Belarus and Russia and then dealing with their territories. He urges security forces to grasp the gravity of the situation, anticipating a potential redivision of the European continent and suggesting that Belarusian democratic forces in exile are preparing to play a role in this process.

Lukashenka also suggests that the wording of the upcoming NATO and US military exercises, “Defender 2024,” especially in the Baltic countries, Germany, and Poland, conceals preparations for aggression against Belarus and Russia. According to Lukashenka’s special services, these exercises involve around 90 thousand military personnel from 32 member countries and partners practicing the strategy of repelling an attempt of Russian aggression against one of the alliance countries. The casus belli for a NATO attack on Belarus and Russia would allegedly be a large-scale provocation by Polish and American intelligence against the civilian population of Poland, with blame assigned to Russia and Belarus, similar to a provocation by Nazi Germany that triggered World War II.

Simultaneously, Lukashenka alleges that Warsaw is attempting to recruit high-ranking Belarusian officials to replace the leaders of the Belarusian democratic forces in exile. The West aims to find or create new loyal and more effective leaders within Belarus, using various methods from bribery and blackmail to threats against the lives and health of their loved ones.

Lukashenka claims that the West is working on three scenarios for overthrowing the regime in Belarus: a coup or violent seizure of power during the election campaign, using the current election campaign as a rehearsal for a coup during the 2025 presidential elections, and playing the long game with extensive use of soft power tools in case of failure of the first two scenarios. Lukashenka considers the third scenario the most likely. Consequently, he perceives no significant internal threats to the stability of his position but anticipates the main challenges arising from the escalation of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and a direct clash between Russia and NATO. He instructs the security forces to be prepared for direct participation in this confrontation on the side of Russia. Essentially, in his speech, Lukashenka mirrored the intentions of Russia, which he attributed to the West

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Once a week, in coordination with a group of prominent Belarusian analysts, we provide analytical commentaries on the most topical and relevant issues, including the behind-the-scenes processes occurring in Belarus. These commentaries are available in Belarusian, Russian, and English.

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