Frustrated by NATO’s secrecy, Minsk holds its cards close

The Ministry of Defence of Belarus has expressed its disappointment at the failure of NATO countries to extend invitations to Belarusian observers to participate in the ongoing exercises. Despite concerns expressed by the “collective West” about the tense politico-military situation in the OSCE area, there has been an alleged unwillingness to utilise the available tools for dialogue on security problems in the region.

This year, a series of multinational exercises, codenamed Defender, were conducted in Europe. The exercises included significant military manoeuvres on the territories of Poland, Estonia, and Norway. However, Belarus was not invited to observe these exercises.

The Belarusian military agency is optimistic that a comprehensive evaluation of the Vienna Document and regional confidence- and security-building measures will facilitate a pragmatic dialogue and address the acute issues related to the activities of the armed forces in border areas. Minsk takes pride in its “ongoing efforts” to de-escalate tensions and prevent another regional conflict.

Simultaneously with this announcement, the Deputy Minister of Defence of the Russian Federation, Pavel Fradkov, held negotiations in Minsk with the Deputy Minister of Defence of the Republic of Belarus, Major-General Andrei Burdyka. The parties engaged in a formal discussion regarding the exchange of experience in the construction of various military and civilian infrastructure facilities.

It is also worth noting that Fradkov oversees engineering and construction activities within the Coordination Council for Military Security in the border areas of the Kursk, Bryansk, and Belgorod provinces. Therefore, it is reasonable to view his visit in the context of potential preparations for the transfer of Russian troops to Belarus. To facilitate this transfer, it is necessary to create appropriate dislocation conditions.

Against this background, Minsk’s calls for a return to “business as usual” on matters of regional security, transparency of military activities, and arms control look like an element of a strategic disinformation campaign. It should be added that the Belarusian military agency carries out certain intelligence tasks in the interests of Russia concerning neighbouring NATO member states. Wanting to observe NATO exercises is therefore quite logical.

It is unclear why, following the Belarusian leadership’s decision to provide Russian troops with access to Belarusian territory and airspace in the context of the ongoing aggression against Ukraine, Minsk is failing to recognise that it has ceased to play an independent role in the region’s military and geopolitical arrangements. Given the perception of being a Kremlin puppet, it is unlikely that an invitation to an honest and trusting dialogue on regional security issues will be extended by NATO, especially as Russia continues to support the war against Ukraine and confront the West.