May 10 – May 16, 2021
Security issues

Decree No.2 does not ensure state security

The situation has not changed
Decree No.2 does not ensure state security

Lukashenka’s decree “On the protection of sovereignty and the Constitutional Order” does nothing to secure Belarusian sovereignty.

Although presented as pivotal, Decree No. 2 is mainly inconsequential and of little practical importance.

The original proposal to empower the Security Council to act as a “collective presidency” has not actually been implemented. The decree confers Presidential powers upon the Prime Minister to issue regulations, make personnel decisions, and act as Commander-in-Chief, but constrains the ability to introduce emergency legislation with a complicated procedure. This may cause confusion and delays within the state apparatus should a crisis arise, such as that the decree envisages (essentially, incapacitation of the President).

Coupled with obstacles to the effectiveness of the Security Council in the form of secret ballot procedures and qualified majority voting by the entire council, the decree fails to fulfil its primary purpose of eliminating the threat of a leadership crisis. The objective of ensuring state security and defence capability is therefore not achieved.

Given the circumstances that precipitated the decree (disclosure of an alleged US-backed “assassination plot” against Lukashenka), it must be interpreted as a propaganda tool aimed at bolstering the loyalist minority in Belarusian society pressurising the Kremlin to make concessions using the pretext of external threats common to the Belarusian and Russian regimes.

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Once a week, in coordination with a group of prominent Belarusian analysts, we provide analytical commentaries on the most topical and relevant issues, including the behind-the-scenes processes occurring in Belarus. These commentaries are available in Belarusian, Russian, and English.

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