China Did Not Support Escalation at the Ukrainian Border; Lukashenko Forced to Temporarily Retreat

Minsk failed to draw China into a confrontation with Kyiv and NATO, and after a warning from the East, Lukashenka was forced to withdraw troops from the Ukrainian border. Despite the temporary de-escalation, the threat of a renewed invasion from Belarusian territory remains.

After several weeks of escalation at the Belarusian-Ukrainian border, on July 13, during a meeting at the location of the 56th Air Defense Missile Regiment in the Brest region, Lukashenka declared victory in a “small victorious” war with Ukraine. As a result, the tension was relieved, and the dictator ordered the security forces and the army to withdraw troops from the border.

According to Lukashenka, the tension arose due to the buildup of Kyiv’s troops at the border several weeks ago. In response, Belarus deployed additional forces to the borders. If Lukashenka is to be believed, these actions had an effect: “the Ukrainians withdrew their armed forces and additional troops from the border and completely removed them from this area.”

As a result, Lukashenka now does not expect any problems from the Ukrainian side. He also emphasized that Minsk does not intend to fight with Kyiv and called for dialogue and negotiations to resolve any differences.

The politician also outlined a new direction for virtual victories – the western border. He stated the necessity to be prepared for provocations from NATO aimed at dragging Belarus into the war but also not to forget about the Ukrainian direction. Small units of the Special Operations Forces of the Belarusian Armed Forces continue to be on duty there.

Notably, these statements were made after the regime’s unsuccessful attempt to draw China into a confrontation with Ukraine and NATO. The Center for National Resistance of Ukraine even reported that Belarus was preparing provocations at the border under a “false flag.” According to the department, the plan was initially for Belarusian security forces to “successfully” prevent these “incidents” to demonstrate their capabilities to Chinese colleagues. However, the Chinese side clearly did not appreciate Lukashenka’s maneuvers.

Nevertheless, Minsk partially achieved its goal. The ongoing joint Belarusian-Chinese exercises “Attacking Falcon” were perceived by Ukraine and NATO as a rapprochement between the regimes of Belarus, Russia, and China. However, the official representative of the Chinese Foreign Ministry, Lin Jian, stated that the exercises between China and Belarus were not directed against any countries and were a regular element of interaction between the two nations.

It is also possible that Lukashenko made this turnaround after a Russian kamikaze drone, “Shahed,” prophylactically penetrated Belarusian airspace and flew 350 km during another nighttime attack by the Kremlin using UAVs against Ukraine.

Despite Minsk’s de-escalation steps, the threat of a renewed invasion of Ukraine from the Belarusian direction remains. This is confirmed by the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Kyrylo Budanov, who analyzes the Kremlin’s plans to mobilize 300,000 Russians for an offensive in the east and north in the coming months.

It is likely that Lukashenka will soon travel to Putin to discuss these plans and the possible involvement of the Belarusian army in them. Knowing about the planned offensive operation, he called on the Ukrainians to quickly come to an agreement with Minsk and Moscow – naturally, on the Kremlin’s terms.