Belarusian Military Intelligence Prepares for NATO Aggression

Belarusian military intelligence believes that NATO, led by the United States, is preparing for a military attack on Belarus and Russia. This scenario is seen by the GRU as a consequence of the escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine by the West into a global confrontation involving nuclear weapons.

Major General Uladzimir Kupryjanuk, Chief of the Main Intelligence Directorate (GRU) and Deputy Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces, published a programmatic article. It provides assessments of military threats and challenges posed by NATO to Belarus and Russia. The main points of the publication align with positions typical of Russia’s military establishment and its propagandist narratives:

• The Western coalition, led by the United States, seeks to maintain global dominance by ignoring international law, supporting “color revolutions,” and engaging in direct military aggression. When non-violent methods prove insufficient, the U.S. instigates wars—such as in Yugoslavia, Iraq, and Libya—resulting in the deaths of many civilians. The foundation of U.S. policy is a drive for hegemony, for which it is willing to violate any norms of international law.
• In 2014, Ukraine became a victim of “American-style democracy,” when a coup brought pro-Western forces to power. These events bolstered radical nationalist and Russophobic views in the country. By 2022, Ukraine had turned into a staging ground for waging war against Russia with the goal of defeating it. Western nations have provided Ukraine with about $130 billion in military aid, over $63 billion of which came from the U.S. This aid included a significant amount of weaponry: tanks, aircraft, air defense systems, artillery, drones, and ammunition. However, Ukraine has not achieved battlefield success, increasing strikes on civilian infrastructure in Russian cities and intensifying sabotage and terrorist activities within Russia.
• A group of approximately 15,000 Ukrainian troops is concentrated near the Belarusian border. A system of defensive positions has been established in the border areas. Ukraine is conducting reconnaissance operations and provocative actions against Belarusian security forces, with Ukrainian special forces constantly present near the border. The collective West has realized it cannot orchestrate a coup in Belarus or Russia and is therefore preparing for open military confrontation. As part of this strategy, support for opposition structures and the preparation of a so-called Belarusian volunteer army, aimed at overthrowing the current government, continues.
• NATO is significantly increasing its military activity near the borders of the Union State. Defense spending has risen, and the size of rapid reaction forces has increased from 80,000 to 300,000 personnel. Brigade-level formations have been deployed in Poland and the Baltic states. Finland and Sweden, now NATO members, have signed military cooperation agreements with the U.S., granting American forces access to 50 facilities on their territory. Finland plans to host a multinational combat tactical group, while additional equipment storage facilities will be established in Poland and the Baltic states. A “NATO-Ukraine” center for analysis, training, and education will also be set up in Poland.
• Poland and the Baltic states continue militarizing their territories. Poland is increasing its defense budget to 4% of GDP and purchasing modern strike weapons systems, including Abrams and K2 tanks, HIMARS rocket systems, Patriot air defense systems, FA-50 fighter jets, and Apache attack helicopters. By 2030, Warsaw plans to acquire 32 F-35 fighters. The size of Poland’s army is expected to grow to 300,000 troops, with three new combat divisions being established. Latvia has begun installing concrete blocks and anti-tank ditches on its border with Belarus and Russia, while Lithuania plans to form a division equipped with German Leopard tanks by 2040.

Thus, Belarusian military intelligence concludes that the territories of Poland and the Baltic states are being transformed into NATO military staging grounds for operations against Russia and Belarus. According to Belarusian military intelligence, the U.S. and its allies continue their proxy war in Ukraine, which risks escalating into a large-scale conflict between nuclear powers. Based on this assessment, the GRU states that the situation around Belarus remains tense, with a tendency toward further deterioration due to the presidential elections scheduled for January 26, 2025. Western actions, according to the GRU, are aimed at destabilizing Belarus and instigating regime change (a coup), potentially including the use of military force.