July 5 – July 11, 2021
Security issues

Afghanistan will not trouble Belarus

The situation has not changed
Afghanistan will not trouble Belarus

Even with the extreme aggravation of the situation in Central Asia, the probability of Belarus being drawn into the conflict is small.

The withdrawal of Western coalition troops from Afghanistan has predictably led to the intensification of the armed conflict in the country. Taliban forces control up to 75% of the border with Tajikistan, leading to extreme nervousness in Dushanbe. The CSTO task force has studied the situation on the ground and concluded that while Tajikistan needs logistical and humanitarian support, there is currently no need for foreign military intervention. However, the situation in Afghanistan continues to deteriorate.

Despite the allocation by Minsk of a military contingent to the Collective Rapid Reaction Forces (CRRF), the likelihood of sending Belarusian servicemen to Central Asia remains low. Previously, in 2017, A. Lukashenko stated that Belarus is responsible for security in the Eastern European region within the framework of the CSTO.

The Belarusian regime has strong arguments for not participating in any hypothetical operation of the CRRF: the need to contain the aggressive aspirations of the West, which have evolved from seeking to annexe the Hrodna region to plotting to annihilate the country. Any Belarusian support for Tajikistan in the current circumstances will likely take the form of minimal material and technical assistance within the framework of the CSTO. To this end, Minsk has already allocated some resources to strengthen the Tajik-Afghan border.

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Once a week, in coordination with a group of prominent Belarusian analysts, we provide analytical commentaries on the most topical and relevant issues, including the behind-the-scenes processes occurring in Belarus. These commentaries are available in Belarusian, Russian, and English.

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