Opposition and authorities start preparations for local elections in 2018

The authorities aim to depoliticise society before the 2017/2018 electoral campaign, while the opposition only starts developing the agenda for the local elections. During the upcoming elections, the Belarusian authorities are likely to use a combined approach, i.e. to demotivate supporters of the opposition and ensure maximum turnout of the loyal electorate. In addition, amid attempts to normalise relations with western capitals, the authorities could allow better representation of political parties in elected bodies.

Belarusian political parties lack a common agenda for the local elections, and most of the opposition is distracted by the Russia-led joint military exercises Zapad-2017. As the exercises draw to an end, tension between the supporters of a boycott and those willing to participate in the election campaign could deteriorate. That said, the majority of the opposition political parties with developed regional structures plan to participate in the upcoming elections and nominate their candidates. Some organisations could attempt to lower barriers and engage many new activists with no experience in politics and who had not been nominated earlier.

Loyal political parties are likely to boost their activity too, especially in Minsk and large cities, and could win more seats in elected bodies. Perhaps, the authorities’ refusal to implement previously announced changes to the electoral code could be offset by somewhat enhancing the role of parties and developing the party system in Belarus.

Yet the Belarusian leadership has not made a final decision about the scenario for the new electoral cycle, which will start in 2018 with local elections. The Central Election Commission head, Lidia Yarmoshina, emphasised, that the parliamentary and the presidential campaigns, which coincide in time in 2020, would be held separately. Indirectly, her statement refuted rumours about the possible combination of the local elections with a referendum to extend Lukashenka’s powers and reset his fifth term as the president.