The West Marks Another Anniversary of the 2020 Protests with New Sanctions, Citing Lukashenko’s Regime’s Involvement in the War Against Ukraine

On the anniversary of the 2020 Belarusian protests, the West has imposed new sanctions on the Lukashenka regime. In addition to the ongoing repression, the involvement of Minsk in Russia’s war against Ukraine is also a key factor. By linking the events of 2020 and 2022, the West raises the bar for any hypothetical normalization of relations between Belarus and the West. Resolving the crisis now requires not only the release of all political prisoners but also Belarus’s withdrawal from the war.

The European Union imposed sanctions on 28 individuals involved in human rights violations and repression in Belarus. These sanctions coincide with the fourth anniversary of the fraudulent presidential elections in August 2020. The sanctions target two deputy heads of the Main Directorate for Combating Organized Crime and Corruption (GUBOPiK), representatives of the judiciary who issued politically motivated sentences, heads of penitentiary institutions, and state media propagandists. Additionally, the EU condemned the unprecedented level of repression and restrictions on participation in political life ahead of the parliamentary and local elections held on February 25, 2024.

EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell, in a special statement, called for the immediate release of all unjustly detained individuals. Borrell noted that there are about 1,400 political prisoners in Belarusian jails, and that the Lukashenka regime is committing crimes against humanity by persecuting its own people.

Borrell also expressed concern over the growing threat to Belarusian sovereignty and identity, as well as the regime’s complicity in the war against Ukraine. The EU urged Minsk to stop supporting Russian aggression. The European Union reiterated its support for the people of Belarus, the democratic movement, and civil society in their pursuit of a free, democratic, independent, and sovereign Belarus as part of a peaceful Europe.

As soon as Belarus begins its transition to democracy, the EU will provide support for stabilizing its economy and reforming its institutions, including through the Comprehensive Economic Support Plan, which could provide up to EUR 3 billion.

The U.S. Treasury Department also introduced new restrictions, adding 19 individuals, 14 entities, and an aircraft used by Lukashenka to the sanctions list. The U.S. State Department imposed visa restrictions on 19 Belarusian officials. The Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) stated that Lukashenka’s support for the war is costly for Belarus and reaffirmed the U.S.’s commitment to holding the Lukashenko regime accountable for its attacks on the Belarusian democratic movement and its egregious exploitation of the Belarusian people.

U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chair Ben Cardin called for action to protect political prisoners in Belarus. Human rights defenders are aware of at least 268 prisoners who are at particular risk, including more than 100 with severe health conditions and 19 individuals with disabilities. At least six people have already died in prison.

The UK also expanded sanctions against Belarusian prison officials and defense industry-related machine-building enterprises (Research Institute of Electronic Engineering and Instrumentation, OJSC Stankogomel, and LLC Rukhservomotor), and announced funds for human rights activities.

Canada followed the UK’s example and imposed sanctions on Mikalai Lukashenka and nine other individuals, as well as six Belarusian companies. The sanctions list includes:

• Judges who sentence democracy defenders and citizens who oppose the fraudulent 2020 elections.
• Individuals involved in military production in Belarus and other countries closely coordinated with Russia.

Sanctions also targeted defense complex enterprises involved in the production or repair of military equipment, as well as a company that repressed employees who protested and joined a strike.

The “For Democratic Belarus” faction of Ukraine’s Verkhovna Rada called on partners to support Belarusians who continue to fight against Lukashenka regime both inside and outside the country and urged the Ukrainian authorities to recognize Belarus’s occupation by Russia.

Official Minsk responded to the increased sanctions pressure in a Foreign Ministry statement. The ministry rejected EU criticism, emphasized successful economic development despite the sanctions, and invited EU politicians to visit the country and see the situation for themselves. The Foreign Ministry offered visa-free entry as a way to encourage constructive dialogue rather than spreading disinformation.

The West now views the 2020 political crisis in Belarus and the regime’s involvement in the war as interconnected. This means that any hypothetical normalization of relations between Minsk and the West would require not only the release of political prisoners but also an open rejection of support for the war against Ukraine. Given that the Belarusian regime is not only completely dependent on the Kremlin but also feels comfortable in this situation, such steps from official Minsk are unlikely. The issue cannot be resolved by simply increasing or decreasing sanctions pressure.

Thus, the resolution of the Belarusian issue lies in the geopolitical and military realm, specifically in the strategic defeat of Russia. Until this basic condition is met, no significant shifts in Minsk’s position are likely, unless the Russian-Ukrainian conflict escalates and expands to the level of a regional war, at which point the stance of the Belarusian regime may no longer matter.