The Shift from West to East Turned into a Fiasco for Lukashenka Regime

Lukashenka regime has long focused on building relationships with distant countries, announcing a geopolitical shift from the West to the East after 2020. However, the results of the past five years have shown that Minsk has achieved no significant success. The regime is unable to offer these countries any mutually beneficial agenda, apart from endless requests for economic and political support in the face of high geopolitical risks.

Against the backdrop of the presidential campaign, Lukashenka announced visits to a number of distant countries, including China, North Korea, Pakistan, and Indonesia. The formal reason for these visits was the need to diversify export markets, as the potential for working with Russia has nearly been exhausted. However, considering that Lukashenka planned these visits ahead of the presidential elections, it is clear that the move was part of a PR campaign. Its purpose was to showcase the endorsement of his reelection by key “ally” states.

At the same time, Minsk presented the situation as if it were these countries that initiated high-level visits by inviting Lukashenka.

For instance, Kim Yo Jong, the sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, firmly refuted Lukashenko’s claim that North Korea had invited him to a high-level meeting in 2025. She emphasized that no such invitation had been extended by North Korea. According to her, Minsk has been trying to establish high-level contact with North Korea for at least two years but misinterpreted the situation that occurred in January.

The North Korean leader’s sister pointed out the need for Belarus to clearly express its intentions to develop relations between the two countries. She also added that North Korea is ready to cooperate if Belarus demonstrates genuine willingness.

A similar situation was observed in the preparation of Lukashenka’s visit to China, which he ordered back in December. Through this visit, Lukashenka clearly wanted to demonstrate Beijing’s support. However, it turned out that the loud statements about the visit were merely Lukashenka’s personal aspirations. Additionally, it is evident that the Belarusian leader also seeks additional financial and economic support from China. It is already known that Minsk hopes to secure a new Chinese loan on preferential terms.

Meanwhile, Lukashenka has yet to complete the “homework” of normalizing relations with neighboring EU countries (primarily Poland) to ensure the smooth functioning of the “China–Europe–China” rail freight corridor.

Lukashenka’s reappointment for a new term, amid increasing dependence on Russia in economic and military-political spheres, and the prospect of Belarus becoming a Russian military outpost, does not reduce but rather increases geopolitical risks.

Minsk is unable to offer any positive agenda to Chinese leadership. Under these circumstances, China is unlikely to invest in cooperation with Belarus. However, unlike Pyongyang, Beijing is unlikely to make this publicly known.

Thus, Lukashenka regime has failed to deliver any added value for distant countries in building relationships with Belarus. Over the past five years, the visits of Belarusian leadership have turned into an endless quest for economic and political support, which, in the context of high geopolitical risks, has already tired many “friendly” nations.