The Shadow of The Hague Looms Over the Lukashenka’s Regime

Lithuania has issued a final warning to Lukashenka’s regime, stating that if it does not make concessions and continues to escalate regional tensions, the Belarusian leader may face a warrant from the International Criminal Court (ICC), similar to the one previously issued for Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The Lithuanian government has submitted materials to the ICC prosecutor’s office documenting transnational crimes against humanity committed by Lukashenka against Belarusians. Since April 2023, the National Anti-Crisis Management (NAU) has been collecting data on such violations by Lukashenka’s regime. In July 2023, NAU experts, in partnership with the Justice Hub Center for Law and Democracy, prepared a report detailing the crimes, evidence of their commission, and tools for holding those responsible accountable.

Some of these crimes were transnational, committed both in Belarus and in the territories of countries that are signatories to the Rome Statute. The collected documents were handed over to Lithuania’s Ministry of Justice, which concluded that there is sufficient evidence to believe that Lukashenka and his associates are committing crimes against humanity. On September 30, the Lithuanian government, supplemented with international expertise, passed these materials to the ICC prosecutor’s office to initiate an investigation. The case focuses on three types of crimes: deportation, persecution of Belarusians abroad, and other inhumane acts of similar severity.

ICC prosecutor Karim Khan emphasized that Lithuania’s submission does not automatically trigger an investigation. However, his office will conduct a preliminary examination to assess the case within the ICC’s jurisdiction and determine if there are reasonable grounds to proceed with an investigation.

Aarif Abraham, a lawyer at Doughty Street Chambers in the UK, representing Lithuania’s interests at the ICC, expressed confidence that the investigation aligns with the ICC’s mandate. According to Abraham, the repression that began in Belarus in 2020 and continues today constitutes crimes against humanity. The victims of these repressions are located in Lithuania, Poland, and other countries, and continue to face persecution.

Exiled Belarusian opposition leaders Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya and Pavel Latushka met with Poland’s Minister of Justice, Adam Bodnar, to discuss the case against Lukashenka’s regime at the ICC, urging Warsaw to support it. They also discussed the importance of opening and supporting legal cases on Lukashenka’s crimes under universal jurisdiction, paying particular attention to the issue of Belarusian political prisoners, including Andrzej Poczobut.

Belarusian Foreign Minister Maksim Ryzhankou commented on Lithuania’s ICC submission, predictably calling the accusations absurd and fabricated. He dismissed Vilnius’s efforts as futile, accusing the ICC of bias and claiming that the outgoing Lithuanian administration is using the most unscrupulous and internationally unlawful methods, exploiting Western-controlled judicial bodies.

Lukashenka himself believes that the purpose of the case is to hold him accountable and exclude him from peace negotiations on Ukraine, which would prevent Belarus from having its interests represented in any eventual peace agreement.

Thus, the ICC case against Lukashenka increases pressure on the regime, especially given Minsk’s reluctance to make concessions, such as ending repressions, releasing political prisoners, stopping migration pressure, and ceasing support for Russia in the war against Ukraine.

According to ICC procedures, the first step will be a preliminary review of the submission. The evidence and materials will be analyzed, and if the case meets the criteria, a formal investigation will begin. Based on the investigation, decisions regarding arrest warrants for the suspects will be made. If the prosecutor considers the evidence strong enough, arrest warrants may be issued even before the investigation concludes. This could happen if the regime takes further escalatory actions, both domestically and internationally, further cementing Lukashenka’s toxic status, even among nations sympathetic to his regime.