The Regime Pretends to Take Criticism Seriously and Reduces Migration Pressure. But for How Long?

After the EU imposed another package of sanctions against Belarus, Poland tightened inspections at road checkpoints, including restricting the export of certain goods to the neighboring country. Warsaw is preparing to block rail traffic despite a slight decrease in migration pressure. Meanwhile, the Lukashenka regime ignores real problems and pretends to be combating illegal migration, calling for dialogue with the West.

Following an ultimatum from Poland, the Lukashenka regime reduced the level of migration pressure on the border. Within a few days after Warsaw threatened to completely block rail freight traffic, about 60 attempts to cross the border illegally were recorded. On average, around 20 such attempts were made daily. Some migrants continued to behave aggressively, throwing stones at Polish patrols. Nevertheless, Warsaw acknowledged that the number of illegal border crossing attempts had decreased by 65%. However, the Polish Ministry of the Interior attributes this reduction more to the creation of a restricted zone near the Belarusian border.

After two weeks of relative calm, illegal migrants reappeared on the Belarusian-Lithuanian border. On July 10, border guards thwarted 15 attempts to cross the border illegally from Belarus. On the same day, more than 40 people tried to cross the Polish border.

Warsaw insists it will do everything possible to resolve the issue. According to Deputy Defense Minister Cezary Tomczyk, Poland will not tolerate the continuation of the migration crisis. To reduce pressure, Poland is strengthening barriers and border security. Additionally, Minsk has been sent a clear signal that the situation “cannot last forever”: Warsaw is ready for any measures, including blocking freight traffic.

Following the 33-hour inspection regime for goods passing through the Malashewichi rail checkpoint, similar temporary measures were taken for freight transport at the Kozlovichi checkpoint, leading to an almost complete halt in traffic. The new sanctions package includes a ban on importing trailers and semi-trailers with Belarusian registration into the EU, even if they are transported by trucks with European registration. There are also restrictions on transportation for EU legal entities that are 25% or more owned by Belarusian individuals or legal entities.

Poland has also restricted the entry of passenger cars with Belarusian registration, only allowing them to cross the border if the owner is present. This is also linked to the new sanctions.

Earlier, implementing EU sanctions introduced by Regulation 2024/1865 of June 29, 2024, Polish customs already banned the export of several goods to Belarus. Besides industrial equipment, luxury items, and raw materials, goods popular among ordinary people such as smartphones, audio and video recording devices, spare parts, monitors, and projectors are also included.

The Polish Deputy Defense Minister expressed confidence that Beijing would pressure the Lukashenka regime, as China does not want problems at the border and intends to “somehow reach Europe.”

In recent weeks, Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski has repeatedly spoken in favor of closing the border, noting that this should affect freight traffic. According to the Polish publication Rzeczpospolita, 71.8% of Poles agree on the need to block railway crossings, with only 13.2% opposed.

Meanwhile, Belarus’ permanent mission to the OSCE continues to categorically deny accusations of using migration as a tool. The Belarusian side emphasized that neighboring countries allegedly “unilaterally” ceased cooperation on border issues. According to Minsk, the increase in illegal migration in 2021 occurred due to the easing of anti-COVID restrictions. Subsequently, Belarus took measures and reduced the flow of illegal migrants to a level lower than before 2020. Additionally, the Belarusian side called for a “normal dialogue” on migration. Proposals for this were allegedly sent to Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia but went unanswered.

Thus, the Belarusian regime continues to pretend not to understand the concerns of the Baltic states and Poland. This indicates Minsk’s reluctance to end the hybrid migration pressure on EU countries, which is directly coordinated by Belarusian and Russian special services.