The Kremlin, Through Lukashenkа, Urges Armenia and Kazakhstan to Show Allied Discipline

Lukashenka’s repeated statements about the need to rally around Russia and his criticism of post-Soviet countries for pursuing multi-vector policies inevitably lead to diplomatic conflicts with formal allies. 

In a recent interview with a Russian television channel, Lukashenka accused Armenia and Kazakhstan of distancing themselves from Russia. Previously, the Belarusian dictator had repeatedly reprimanded and warned CIS and EEU partners about cooling relations with Moscow. Now, he criticizes post-Soviet states for wanting to “take something from Russia without giving anything in return.” Specifically, Lukashenka reminded Astana of its debt to Moscow for helping suppress the protests in January 2022 and hinted to Yerevan that Armenians have no allies other than Russia. In doing so, Lukashenka criticized Armenia and Kazakhstan for attempting to pursue a multi-vector policy and for their reluctance to follow Belarus’s path—abandoning sovereignty, as well as independent foreign and military policies, and siding with Russia in its war against Ukraine and confrontation with the West.

These statements predictably sparked a strong reaction in both Yerevan and Astana. For instance, Belarusian Ambassador Pavel Utyupin was summoned to the Kazakh Foreign Ministry to explain his leader’s remarks. Kazakhstan’s Foreign Minister, Murat Nurtleu, urged Belarus to objectively assess Astana’s position on ongoing processes. He also emphasized that Kazakhstan conducts a balanced and peaceful foreign policy in accordance with the UN Charter and fundamental norms of international law. This stance was later reiterated to Belarusian Foreign Minister Maksim Ryzhankou by Kazakhstan’s Ambassador to Belarus, Timur Zhaksylykov.

In Yerevan, the Belarusian Embassy in Armenia was attacked by protesters who pelted the building with eggs, potatoes, and tomatoes. The protest was organized by the leader of the “For the Republic” party, Arman Babajanyan, and his supporters in response to Lukashenka’s comments about Armenians. The protesters chanted “Out of Armenia!” and demanded the severance of diplomatic relations with Belarus due to Lukashenka’s anti-Armenian stance and his support for Azerbaijan in the Karabakh conflict.

Additionally, five Armenian parties issued a statement calling on the Armenian Foreign Ministry to sever diplomatic relations with Belarus and withdraw from the CSTO, EEU, and CIS.

Overall, the criticism from Minsk directed at Kazakhstan appears to be an indirect debate with Kazakh leader Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, who recently published an article outlining a strategic vision for the development of Kazakhstan and the entire Central Asian region.

In it, Tokayev asserts that the region’s states have proven their viability and secured a respected place in the international community, strengthening their territorial integrity, freedom, and independence. Moreover, the Central Asian countries have developed a pragmatic strategy for foreign relations that has created a stabilizing balance of inter-state and inter-regional interests, allowing them to become full participants in global processes.

Thus, the region is focused on strengthening its role as a Eurasian epicenter of international geopolitical and geo-economic transformations. Additionally, Central Asia needs to build its own regional security architecture without Russia.

Post-Soviet countries are using the Russia-Ukraine war as an opportunity to distance themselves from Russia and develop multi-vector foreign policies. Meanwhile, Lukashenka continues to pursue a course of surrendering sovereignty and independence, deepening international isolation, and foregoing development prospects in favor of preserving Russia’s influence and his own power.

The independent geopolitical course pursued by these countries predictably draws criticism from Minsk and Moscow. However, due to the overall negative state of affairs, the Kremlin is unable to take any substantive action: the conflict with Ukraine is leading to a decline in Russia’s influence in the post-Soviet space. In these circumstances, it is left to express anger and criticism through Lukashenka. Although both Astana and Yerevan fully understand who is ultimately behind this criticism, they proceed cautiously, preferring to respond by criticizing Lukashenka rather than his master.