The Belarusian Issue Ahead of the Leadership Change in the EU

Personnel changes in European bureaucratic institutions raise questions about the future of the EU’s approach to the Belarusian issue—especially against the backdrop of the ongoing focus on the Russia-Ukraine war and uncertainty following the U.S. presidential elections. However, the most likely scenario appears to be the EU maintaining its current inertia-driven approach.

The leader of the democratic forces in exile, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, and former EU foreign affairs chief Josep Borrell published a joint article in EUobserver on the final day of his tenure as High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs. The article focuses on why and how the EU should continue supporting Belarus and its people. It is an attempt to keep the Belarusian issue in the spotlight amid the election of a new European Commission, heightened attention to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the uncertainty associated with Donald Trump’s potential return to the U.S. presidency.

The article underscores that Belarus is a European country that shares values of freedom, dignity, and self-determination with other European nations. In 2020, Belarusians peacefully protested for a democratic future, only to see their aspirations crushed by the authoritarian regime of Lukashenka.

Belarus’ leadership aligned itself with Russia, allowing its territory to be used for aggression against Ukraine. The EU responded with sanctions against Lukashenka’s regime and support for Belarusians, including financial aid, visa issuance, and international protection.

According to the authors, the EU must continue to strengthen its dual policy of isolating Lukashenka’s regime while supporting the Belarusian people. This includes intensifying sanctions, backing civil society and democratic forces, facilitating mobility for ordinary Belarusians, and securing the release of political prisoners.

The EU should also offer Belarusians a clear vision of a European future, making it evident that the EU’s doors will be open to Belarus when it is ready.

Finally, the article argues that supporting a democratic Belarus is not only a moral obligation but a strategic necessity for the EU. Such support would help ensure peace and stability in the region, weaken Russia’s grip on Eastern Europe, and bolster European security overall.

Overall, the article serves not only as a reflection of the demands of the Belarusian democratic forces in exile but also as a demonstration of Brussels’ stance amid the upcoming EU leadership reshuffle. The publication emphasizes that Belarus is part of Europe, and the EU remains steadfast in supporting the Belarusian people and their aspiration to live in a democratic and independent country within a peaceful and united Europe.

However, the appeals outlined in the article do not yet suggest the presence of a substantive strategy regarding Belarus. As such, the continuation of an inertia-driven approach appears to be the most likely outcome.