Strategic Dialogue with the USA: Attempt to Keep Washington’s Focus on Belarus

The democratic forces of Belarus aim to maintain America’s focus on the Belarusian problem amid the transition of the U.S. presidential administration. Proposed strategies emphasize sustaining pressure on Lukashenka and his allies, supporting civil society, holding the regime accountable, and steering Belarus out of Russia’s sphere of influence.

The second session of the Strategic Dialogue between Belarus and the USA took place in Vilnius. The Belarusian side was represented by democratic forces in exile, while the American delegation included the U.S. Embassy in Lithuania and Christopher W. Smith, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs.

Participants condemned Lukashenka’s regime for its role in the aggression against Ukraine. Both sides stressed the importance of cutting off support flows to Russia via Belarus and holding the regime accountable for human rights violations, including the detention of approximately 1,300 political prisoners.

The upcoming presidential elections in Belarus, scheduled for January 2025, were also discussed. The U.S. considers free elections impossible under the current climate of fear and the absence of democratic procedures and calls for free and fair elections under international observation.

Discussions highlighted the importance of preserving Belarusian national and cultural identity and reaffirmed U.S. support for the Belarusian people’s aspirations for a democratic future. This includes providing over $140 million in assistance to Belarusian civil society and imposing sanctions on hundreds of Belarusian individuals and entities.

Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, the leader of Belarusian democratic forces, presented a four-pronged strategy towards the Lukashenka regime. It focuses on:

1. Intensifying economic pressure (sanctions on Belarus and Russia, including secondary sanctions),
2. Providing comprehensive support to the Belarusian people, civil society, and democratic institutions,
3. Ensuring accountability for those responsible for repression, and
4. Demonstrating support for Belarusians during the transitional period.

This strategy aims to weaken Lukashenka’s regime through sustained pressure, supporting democratic forces, and ensuring accountability for crimes against humanity. These efforts are expected to lead to the release of political prisoners and create conditions for democratic transformation in Belarus.

Pavel Latushka, Deputy Head of Belarus’s United Transitional Cabinet, urged the U.S. to incorporate Belarus into its European security strategy. He emphasized that Belarus, currently a military platform for Russia and a “sanctions loophole,” requires active Western intervention.

A successful strategy must include systematic support for Belarusian civil society and independent media, non-recognition of Lukashenka, accountability measures, enhanced sanctions against the regime, and ensuring that decisions about Belarus’s future involve Belarusians.

The ultimate goal is a democratic Belarus outside Russia’s sphere of influence, integrated into the European and Euro-Atlantic community. This is seen as essential for ensuring peace and security in the region. Neglecting this factor could result in further Russian aggression.

Meanwhile, U.S. Congress held hearings on Belarus’s role and complicity in Russia’s crimes, including the forced transfer and indoctrination of Ukrainian children, military cooperation with Russia, and sanctions evasion.

Democratic forces are working to keep the Belarusian issue on Washington’s agenda during the U.S. presidential transition. The Biden administration has approached the Belarusian problem comprehensively, addressing human rights and democracy issues alongside Belarus’s role in Russia’s war against Ukraine. However, with the potential return of a Trump administration, which may prioritize resolving the Russia-Ukraine conflict, attention to Belarus could shift towards geopolitical and regional security concerns. In this context, the primary task for democratic forces is to convince the U.S. of the necessity to extricate Belarus from Russia’s influence as a guarantee of security for Ukraine and NATO’s eastern flank.