Regime shifts blame to West for struggles in China-Belarus relations

Belarusian Foreign Minister Maksim Ryzhankou was a “speaker from Europe” at the Belt and Road Summit in Hong Kong. However, instead of setting out how Belarus plans to meet its obligations under this initiative to strengthen economic ties between China and Europe, the speech was mostly about criticizing the West. Ryzhankou also tried to make excuses for the problems that the regime is causing for the interests of China in its dealings with the West.

According to him, Minsk, along with China, sees itself as part of the “global majority” and the Chinese Belt and Road initiative as an alternative to Western models of cooperation and development.

Meanwhile, Minsk is trying to set China at ease regarding the risks of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and the poor relations with the West. Thus, Belarus remains the most important land transit link between China and Europe, despite the threat of transit blockades, especially for cargo coming from Poland. Railroad transit through Belarus on the China – Europe – China route increased by 74 percent at the beginning of the year and reached an all-time high. Given the situation in Ukraine and the transit restrictions in the Baltic states, Belarus is now the only land route to Europe, which makes it even more important strategically.

On top of that, Minsk says it is doing everything it can to keep Belarus out of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, and it has the leverage to do so. So, the Belarusian side is also on board with the China-Brazil Consensus initiative to put a stop to the war between Russia and Ukraine.

In other words, the regime is still positioning itself as a reliable partner and supporter of the Belt and Road Initiative in Europe.

First, Belarus became a full member of the SCO, which gave it a stronger position in the international arena and more interaction with the participants of the Belt and Road Initiative.

Second, Belarus is making a big shift in its foreign trade, focusing more on Asian countries. China is now Belarus’ second most important trading partner. It looks like trade with China will be bigger than trade with the EU this year. This shows that the Belarusian economy is changing in a new direction.

Third, Belarus is looking to team up with China on industrial development. This will help stand up to Western efforts to push Chinese technology out of the market. Its large-scale use in Belarus will be a demonstration of the technology’s effectiveness in Europe, according to the Belarusian authorities.

Fourth, Minsk emphasizes the potential of the Sino-Belarusian Great Stone Industrial Park, which is China’s largest overseas project and the “Pearl on the Silk Road Economic Belt”. The Belarusian side is keen to emphasize that the park is open to investors from any country in the world and offers favorable conditions for business development based on Chinese best practices. This makes it a symbol of global cooperation and integration.

Ultimately, the regime aims to position Belarus as a reliable partner for China and other Belt and Road countries, offering not only a gateway to Europe but also a dependable source of support.

In general, these arguments appear to be a response to the problematic discussions during the visit of Premier Li Qiang of the State Council of the People’s Republic of China in late August.  Issues were raised in response to the refusal of the Chinese company CRRC Datong Co. Ltd. to supply the Belarusian Railway company with 15 freight single-section electric locomotives due to sanctions concerns. The proposal was to resume the project after “normalization of the situation.”