Poland Sets Unacceptable Demands for the Regime: Full Cargo Blockade at Stake

Poland has not been impressed by Lukashenka’s regime’s calls for dialogue regarding the border, the amnesty of some political prisoners, the reduction in migration pressure, and the introduction of a new visa-free regime. The Polish authorities have formulated conditions that, if met, could allow Belarus to avoid a full cargo blockade. However, instead of complying with these demands, Minsk is finding arguments not to do so.

Poland has reiterated its conditions for normalizing relations with Belarus. Warsaw demands that Lukashenka’s regime end hybrid attacks at the border, release political prisoners, and hand over the killer of a Polish soldier.

Poland is ready to close the border to cargo traffic if Belarus does not meet these conditions. The extradition of the person suspected of killing a Polish soldier and the release of Andrzej Poczobut, along with other Poles, are basic conditions for negotiations with Poland. Meeting these points could lead to discussions about opening additional border crossings.

Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski stated that Belarus leaves Poland with no other choice but to close the border. He indicated that Minsk knows what needs to be done to improve relations with Warsaw but has not taken action. It is known that Poland and Belarus are negotiating Poczobut’s release at the lower levels of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and consular services. However, the Polish side is dissatisfied with the dynamics and level of these negotiations, and Sikorski emphasized that closing the border is Poland’s sovereign right and that Belarusian authorities may leave Poland with no other choice. The detention of Poczobut, a prominent figure in the Polish diaspora and journalist, as well as the preparation of aggressive migrants by security services to storm the border, are unacceptable to Poland.

Warsaw threatens to fully close border crossings with Belarus if nothing changes. To demonstrate the seriousness of these intentions, Polish customs have begun unannounced intensified inspections of trucks crossing the border, resulting in long queues at the Kukuryki checkpoint. Polish authorities still hope that blocking the railway transit route from China to Europe will pressure the East to influence the Lukashenka regime. Especially since Polish experts acknowledge that Minsk’s call for dialogue with Poland was made under pressure from Beijing.

Recently, there have been fewer attempts by illegal migrants to breach the Belarusian-Polish border, “nevertheless, migrants behave aggressively and are supported by the Belarusian and Russian sides.” Minsk is likely trying to find arguments, such as the visa-free regime or calls for dialogue, to show Beijing that the blame for the situation at the border lies with Warsaw, which rejects calls for negotiations.

Earlier, Belarusian Foreign Minister Maksim Ryzhankou stated that Warsaw’s demands were unacceptable and that Polish blackmail with a cargo blockade had failed. However, Supreme Court Chairman Valentin Sukala noted that following the recent amnesty of 18 people, the pardon of several more political prisoners is being prepared. Additionally, a proposal has been made for a number of individuals imprisoned for political reasons to write petitions for clemency. However, it seems that this step is another trick by the Lukashenka regime to avoid meeting Warsaw’s conditions and Beijing’s demands, as the prisoners being asked to write clemency petitions are those nearing the end of their sentences.

Meanwhile, there is no progress in easing restrictions on the entry of cars with Belarusian plates into the Baltic countries due to new EU sanctions, despite initiatives from Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya’s Office. However, Poland, also an EU member, still allows the entry of Belarusian cars, albeit with some conditions. Specifically, the car’s owner must be driving or at least present in the vehicle. This also applies to vehicles owned by legal entities.

Thus, the likelihood of increased isolation for Belarus from Europe is growing. The negative trend is linked to the Lukashenka regime’s refusal to meet Warsaw’s demands, acting on behalf of not only the Baltic countries but also the entire EU. Since the democratic forces in exile cannot influence the regime’s behavior, their voice in this matter will, at best, secure some exceptions for Belarusians. However, the closing of the “iron curtain” is becoming an almost inevitable scenario unless a total cargo blockade changes the Lukashenka regime’s tactical and strategic calculations.