Minsk Proposes a “Reset” with the West, Aiming for Lithuania

Minsk is offering Western countries, specifically Lithuania, a chance to return to business-as-usual relations. The Belarusian regime hopes that by appealing to rational arguments, such as the economic losses from the breakdown of cooperation, it can sway Western public opinion toward restoring relations with Belarus. However, these signals are essentially an attempt to interfere in internal affairs, particularly in support of pro-Kremlin populists. Minsk is fully aware of the conditions for normalizing relations but has no intention of genuinely initiating a “reset” with the West.

Belarusian Foreign Minister Maksim Ryzhankou proposed a reset in relations with Lithuania, while accusing the country of backing a “state coup” in Belarus in 2020 and waging a “short-sighted hybrid war against the Belarusian state and people.”

Ryzhankou asserts that Belarus and Lithuania have no real disputes, despite diverging foreign policy priorities since the late 20th century. He pointed to supposed economic losses for Lithuania due to the severing of ties with Minsk, estimating these losses at around $1 billion, and described the impact on Lithuania’s transit industry as “catastrophic.”

The minister also touched on the Belarusian nuclear power plant (NPP) located about 50 kilometers from Vilnius, questioning whether Lithuania truly doesn’t need cheap, stable energy supplies from Belarus. He stressed that Belarusians are neither naive nor irresponsible enough to build an unsafe NPP.

In conclusion, Ryzhankou urged Lithuania to “step back from the edge of the abyss” and return to constructive cooperation while there’s still time. He suggested starting with dialogue between parliamentarians or other authorized Lithuanian delegations. His proposal includes drafting a roadmap to unblock cooperation in specific areas based on respect for Belarus’s sovereignty, independence, and its right to follow its own path of development in partnership with others.

Key areas of focus outlined by Minsk include:

• Normalizing the migration situation at the border;
• De-escalating military tensions;
• Cooperation between law enforcement agencies;
• Resuming the payment of pensions and benefits;
• Supporting health recovery programs, including for people with chronic illnesses and disabled children;
• Restoring normal passenger and cargo traffic, including the transit of humanitarian goods such as food, medicine, and fertilizers;
• Resuming educational and cultural exchanges, joint scientific programs;
• Continuing the reconstruction of border checkpoints;
• Implementing environmental projects;
• Cooperation in the energy sector;
• Creating joint ventures;
• Facilitating normal human interaction between Belarusians and Lithuanians.

In response, Speaker of the Lithuanian Seimas Viktorija Čmilytė-Nielsen quickly noted that such proposals have been made by Belarusian authorities before but were always followed by a retreat from dialogue. Vilnius currently sees no reason to believe that the Lukashenka regime will stop supporting Russia or release political prisoners.

Lithuania’s position remains clear: it supports Belarusian democratic forces. Čmilytė-Nielsen also speculated that Ryzhankou’s statement was deliberately timed ahead of Lithuania’s parliamentary elections on October 13.

Lithuania’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said it has not received any official proposals from Belarus to restore relations and considers this possible only after Minsk implements democratic reforms, releases political prisoners, and holds those responsible for repression accountable.

In response, Ryzhankou once again criticized Lithuania for cutting off cooperation with Belarus and Russia, arguing that it harms Lithuania’s economy. He cited the deterioration in Lithuania’s relations with China following the opening of a Taiwanese representative office in Vilnius as an example.

The timing of Ryzhankou’s article, just before Lithuania’s parliamentary elections, is no coincidence. It is part of an attempt by Moscow and Minsk to interfere in the elections and support pro-Kremlin populists. Belarus is also interested in the rise to power of more favorable politicians in Lithuania, as this would improve Minsk’s international standing. Thus, in his article, Ryzhankou urged Lithuanians to “calmly and rationally assess the situation” and “vote correctly” — meaning in a way that would align with the interests of Moscow and its closest ally.