Minsk brews diplomatic power play in the West with the Global South support

Maksim Ryzhankou, the head of the Belarusian Foreign Ministry, announced that an international conference on combating illegal migration will be held in Minsk in November 2024. He invited participants from Western countries to attend.

Official Minsk specifically hopes to see a Polish representative attending, in particular Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski. This is understandable, as Poland acts as the Belarusian regime’s main opponent in the migration crisis conflict.

To achieve the desired effect and resonance, the regime plans to use all means, including threats, blackmail, and manipulation. In particular, former political prisoner Yury Vaskrasenski, who is known for his pro-Russian views, said that it was the Polish side that refused to include Andrzej Poczobut in the recent Russian-American exchange. He also said that Sikorski should come to Belarus to pick up Poczobut if he doesn’t want him to serve the full term or worse have it extended.

Against this backdrop, there was a big increase in the number of people trying to enter the EU illegally, with 130 attempts made daily, compared to the usual 50-70. So, it’s possible that Lukashenka is not trying to hold the conference aiming to solve the migration crisis. It could be that he wants to embarrass his Western neighbors and show that everyone should “move on” in the run-up to his next reappointment as the country’s leader.

On top of that, the conference will be used as a platform to showcase the willingness to cooperate with UN representatives and delegates from countries with a global presence. However, the main goal is to put Western neighbors in a bad light.

It seems that Ryzhankou is heading to New York for the 79th session of the UN General Assembly to test the soil. Yury Ambrazevich (Ryzhankou’s deputy) will also be part of the delegation. From September 24 to 30, 2024, the UN headquarters will be the place to be for most of the high-level events. Ryzhankou plans to bring up a few topics during this time, including:

• “Migration crisis” on the EU-Belarus border and the West’s role in it;
• Traffic restrictions and border closures by neighboring EU countries;
• Sanctions and their continuing negative impact on the economy of the Republic of Belarus.

Ryzhankou’s primary objective will be to initiate a new chapter in relations with an emphasis on constructive dialogue with all countries, based on principles of mutual respect and non-discrimination. This approach would legitimize Lukashenka’s regime and ease international sanctions. Ryzhankou is also seeking the opportunity to meet with UN Secretary-General António Guterres as part of the backroom discussions.

Recently, it became evident that Minsk is preparing to re-engage with the West. To get this done, it seems that Aliaksandr Lukashenka has put Ryzhankou, who has experience on the Western track, in charge of the Foreign Ministry, and Natallia Piatkevich as deputy head of his presidential administration. It is also clear that they do not have free rein to achieve this goal, as they did during the previous round of reset led by Uladzimir Makei. It is not really possible for them to change the country’s foreign policy and military strategy, deal with the migration crisis, or put a stop to the crackdown on dissidents with their proposals, as these issues are now decided by the Kremlin.

Gathering as much support as possible in the Global South and then negotiating with the West from that position seems to be the crafty plan.