Lukashenka’s Regime Gained Modest Attention from the U.S.

Washington sent an emissary to Minsk for a private round of talks with Lukashenka’s regime. The U.S. interest may be driven by several factors, such as exploring the possibility of freeing political prisoners or assessing the terms of a potential deal for Belarus to refrain from participating in the war. Additionally, discussions may have included topics related to peace negotiations on Ukraine and the signing of a security guarantee treaty between Minsk and Moscow for the Union State.

On October 15, the U.S. Embassy in Minsk hosted a reception for staff of other foreign missions in connection with the visit of Kevin Doyle, a U.S. State Department official. Together with U.S. Chargé d’Affaires Peter Kaufman, Doyle met with representatives of the Belarusian Foreign Ministry, where the fate of political prisoners was discussed. However, the talks did not clarify the situation.

Doyle is not a high-ranking State Department representative, and his visit was presented as a routine matter (there were no official statements about the visit at all). Still, Washington officials rarely visit Minsk, making this event noteworthy.

The U.S. State Department explained the visit as necessary to maintain official contacts with the Belarusian Foreign Ministry. They claimed that such meetings ensure that America can conduct regular diplomatic communication and protect U.S. national interests on behalf of U.S. citizens.

Lukashenka acknowledged that he recently held “very difficult, tough, but interesting negotiations with representatives of Western countries,” hinting at the U.S. Therefore, in addition to official reasons, there are a few other possible explanations for this unexpected visit.

Firstly, in September, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya met twice with U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell to discuss efforts to free political prisoners and increase sanctions pressure. In recent months, Lukashenka has engaged in this area, pardoning over a hundred people in several waves. During a meeting with students of Belarusian State University of Informatics and Radioelectronics (BSUIR) at the end of September, the dictator said that the practice of pardoning would continue. Moreover, Belarusian and U.S. citizen Yuri Zenkovich, a political prisoner, is currently imprisoned, accused of “preparing a coup at the request of U.S. intelligence services.”

It is possible that the U.S. official was probing how serious the Belarusian regime’s intentions are regarding the release of political prisoners and what Minsk wants in return.

Secondly, Washington might have sent its representative to Minsk to evaluate whether the proposed deal remains relevant. Lukashenka outlined its details through Mikhail Gutseriev during secret negotiations in Prague in 2022: Belarusian potash mines and a promise not to enter the war in exchange for American guarantees. However, finalizing such a deal would have been extremely challenging even in 2022 due to several reasons: dependence on Russia, the risk of conflict with the Kremlin, limited leverage, Western sanctions, and isolation. In the current context, the deal seems even less likely, especially given Minsk and Moscow’s joint moves toward escalating the conflict with Ukraine in 2025.

Thirdly, Minsk has expressed ambitions to participate in peace talks regarding Ukraine. According to Lukashenka, if Belarus is not represented at the proposed negotiations to end the Russia-Ukraine war, it could lose up to half of its territory. This implies that the Belarusian leader is unsure whether the Kremlin will take his interests into account when it comes to reshaping the regional balance of power and establishing a new international security system.

Meanwhile, Minsk is set to soon sign a security treaty for the Union State, which will detail, among other things, the conditions for the use of Russian tactical nuclear weapons stationed on Belarusian territory. It is possible that Washington is interested in obtaining additional information from Minsk on both the peace talks on Ukraine and the new treaty with Moscow, given Washington’s particular sensitivity to issues of nuclear non-proliferation.