EU Imposes New Sanctions on Belarus Despite Calls from Democratic Forces for a Differentiated Strategy

As the New Year approaches, the European Union plans to adopt a new sanctions package against Russia and Belarus, despite calls from some representatives of democratic forces to ease sanctions in response to the release of another group of political prisoners. This approach, ideally, could promote further rounds of pardons from the regime. However, to ease the pressure, the regime must not only stop its repressions but also cease its complicity in Russia’s war against Ukraine and confrontation with the West.

On December 15, EU ambassadors approved the 15th sanctions package against Russia, targeting individuals and organizations that contribute to Russia’s military and technological enhancement by bypassing export restrictions.

This sanctions package, which includes new measures against Russia’s shadow oil fleet and, reportedly, Chinese companies supporting Russia’s military production, will be discussed by the EU foreign ministers on December 16. The European Commission’s proposals include adding 29 legal entities and 54 individuals to the sanctions list, along with 48 tankers being added to the “blacklist.”

Additionally, the EU plans to introduce sanctions against more than ten individuals and three legal entities from Russia involved in disinformation operations and hybrid attacks. The sanctions will target employees of Russian intelligence agencies, government officials, media entrepreneurs, as well as further measures against Belarus, aimed at individuals accused of human rights violations or collaborating with the Lukashenka’s regime.

The EU is also proposing additional sanctions against Belarus, particularly targeting around two dozen individuals accused of human rights violations or benefiting from their ties with Lukashenka’s regime. The sanctions list will include two Belarusian companies and 26 individuals, mostly businessmen and judges.

Against this backdrop, Tatsiana Khomich, the sister of political prisoner Maria Kalesnikava, addressed the European Parliament, proposing a strategic easing of sanctions against Belarus in exchange for the release of political prisoners. She emphasized the importance of a flexible approach to achieve humanitarian goals, suggesting that the release of 207 political prisoners through pardons is a positive signal that requires coordinated action by the international community, including increased diplomatic efforts and considering concessions in sanctions to accelerate the release of the remaining prisoners.

Valer Kavaleuski, head of the Agency for Euro-Atlantic Integration, echoed a similar message, calling for more flexible diplomacy and highlighting the need to leverage existing sanctions for the release of political prisoners and reassess the strategy if the current one is ineffective.

Pavel Latushka, Deputy Head of the United Transitional Committee, advocated for increased pressure on the regime but urged the EU to address systemic issues related to the legalization of Belarusian citizens abroad.

Earlier, propagandist Yuri Vaskrasenski stated that further pardons, especially for democratic leaders, would be impossible without significant concessions from the West, such as opening airspace or lifting sanctions on industrial enterprises. On the other hand, the Belarusian KGB stated that Minsk has no intention of swapping foreign citizens imprisoned for espionage for Belarusian citizens imprisoned abroad, signaling the regime’s lack of interest in de-escalating tensions with neighboring countries.

Thus, despite calls from some members of the democratic forces for a differentiated approach to sanctions against the regime, Brussels has no intention of easing its sanctions pressure on Belarus. This is due not only to the human rights situation but also to the ongoing hybrid attacks by Minsk on neighboring countries, as well as its complicity in Russia’s aggression against Ukraine and confrontation with the West.

Given that the EU does not expect free and fair elections in Belarus in 2025 and does not plan to recognize their results, and considering the escalating steps from both the regime and the Kremlin, the trend of increasing sanctions pressure is likely to continue.