Did Lukashenka try to make a deal with the Americans?

Czech media have spread sensational information about Lukashenka’s alleged desire to strike a secret deal with the U.S. in 2022, through his “wallet” — Russian oligarch Mikhail Gutseriev. However, such a deal seemed unlikely, especially considering Lukashenka’s critical dependence on Russia, his diplomatic isolation, and the limited resources and influence he could offer to attract U.S. interest.

According to the Czech publication, two key meetings took place in Prague in the first half of 2022, which could have impacted the course of the war in Ukraine. The initiator of these meetings was Russian oligarch Mikhail Gutseriev, known as one of Lukashenka’s “wallets.” Key participants included his nephew Mikhail Shishkhanov, as well as representatives from the FBI and Czech intelligence services.

During the secret negotiations, Gutseriev allegedly stated that he wanted to strike a deal with the U.S. on behalf of Lukashenka — and asked for the removal of sanctions on himself and his son in exchange for services. He reportedly stated that Belarus would not join the war or attack Ukraine.

The Belarusian politician’s proposal was supposedly driven by fear of Putin, concern for his own and his children’s safety, and a desire to avoid entering the war against Ukraine. Lukashenka sought American help to prevent negative scenarios for himself. As a guarantee, the Belarusian dictator was reportedly ready to transfer control of potash mines to the U.S. or a third party designated by the Americans.

The meetings in Prague ended with the proposal being sent to the CIA for consideration, but nothing happened in the following months.

According to another version, Gutseriev secretly met with FBI and Czech intelligence representatives in 2022. The businessman allegedly offered information on Lukashenka’s and Putin’s plans in exchange for lifting the sanctions imposed by the EU after the suppression of protests in Belarus and the Ryanair plane incident in Minsk.

Gutseriev had been involved in business projects in Belarus since 2000. For example, he was the president of the Russian-Belarusian state-owned oil and gas company “Slavneft.” Under his leadership, Slavneft modernized the Mozyr Oil Refinery, which is part of the company.

For unknown reasons, the deal did not materialize. By June 2023, Czech authorities had opened a criminal case against Gutseriev and his nephew Shishkhanov, accusing them of money laundering and collaboration with Russian intelligence services.

However, it is clear that striking such a deal would have been extremely difficult for Lukashenka for several reasons:

1. Dependence on Russia: Lukashenka heavily depends on Russia both economically and politically. After the 2020 protests and subsequent Western sanctions, his reliance on Moscow increased. Russia provides economic aid and military support to Lukashenka’s regime, limiting his ability to make independent decisions on important issues — such as participating in the war with Ukraine. Any deal with the U.S. without the Kremlin’s approval could have threatened his position.
2. Risk of conflict with the Kremlin: Lukashenka has repeatedly declared his strategic relationship with Putin. A deal with the U.S., which would involve Belarus staying out of the war or handing over assets to the Americans, could have provoked a negative reaction from Moscow. The Kremlin would likely see this as a betrayal in the context of the war in Ukraine and the West’s sanctions pressure.
3. Limited leverage: Despite his long-term rule in Belarus, Lukashenka lacks significant leverage on the international stage to offer a meaningful deal to the U.S. His ability to dictate terms (or make serious proposals to America in exchange for guarantees of safety for himself and his family) is limited.
4. Western sanctions and isolation: Belarus and Lukashenka personally are under strict Western sanctions. A deal with the U.S. could theoretically reduce this pressure. However, U.S. sanctions policy usually requires concrete actions — such as democratic reforms or ending repressive policies, which contradict Lukashenka’s course of suppressing opposition and maintaining an authoritarian regime.
5. Gutseriev’s role: Mikhail Gutseriev, a well-known oligarch with close ties to the Russian elite, is also under sanctions. While he could have acted as an intermediary in negotiations, the U.S. would be unlikely to trust someone with such a background.