Vassal of Another Lord is Still My Vassal

Lukashenka recently made another visit to Russia, where he discussed the current bilateral agenda with Putin. According to official press reports, the agenda was not particularly packed; the visit turned out to be routine and ordinary. The usually enthusiastic propaganda machinery didn’t even bother to make much of the event.

This time, the dictators traveled to the Valaam Monastery on Lake Ladoga. They spent several long hours together, admiring the scenery and discussing current issues, including Belarusian-Russian relations, the advancement of union projects, regional security, and international matters. There were no additional details from the meeting, though Putin could have theoretically made some encouraging announcements, such as a new Russian loan for import substitution.

Insiders claim that Putin and Lukashenka specifically discussed the upcoming 2025 presidential elections in Belarus, a topic that will likely be prominent in the agenda over the next year. There’s no need to guess; the self-proclaimed president of Belarus would like to remain in power for another term—at the very least. This would be Lukashenka’s seventh term, and analysts suggest that the upcoming elections may again be turbulent. For Lukashenka, it is crucial to prevent any repeat of the events of 2020, and it is also important that Putin supports his candidacy in 2025.

The Russian leader is likely willing to offer some guarantees but may also play on Lukashenka’s fears. What can Lukashenka offer in return? The implementation of a new package of integration programs or something more significant?

Another topic of discussion was aspects of strategic partnership. Lukashenka, the classic Figaro, serves several masters whose interests only partially align. After several not very successful recent attempts to normalize diplomatic relations with the EU, Minsk has once again returned to the topic of “strategic partnership” with China. Geopolitical balancing is all the Belarusian regime has and all it plans to rely on in the near future. Putin wants Lukashenka to continue pressuring Poland and Europe with migration waves, while Xi Jinping needs container transit through Belarus to proceed without hindrance.

Warsaw has calculated that this is Lukashenka’s weak spot and has set clear conditions: if migrants continue to storm the border, transit will be cut off. Lukashenka is skilled at maneuvering out of difficult situations, but the near future will show which overlord he is more willing to serve. Presumably, of course, it will be Putin, but as before, with various reservations.